Bitcoin’s (BTC) value will improve 74.1% within the first yr after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched in the USA, based on estimates from crypto funding agency Galaxy Digital.
In an Oct. 24 weblog publish, Galaxy Digital analysis affiliate Charles Yu estimated the full addressable market measurement for Bitcoin ETFs could be $14.4 trillion within the first yr after launch. He obtained the 74% determine by assessing the potential value influence of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF merchandise utilizing gold ETFs as a baseline.
In keeping with Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s value would improve 6.2% within the first month after an ETF launch earlier than steadily trending downward to a 3.7% month-to-month improve by month 12.
Yu used Bitcoin value knowledge from Sept. 30, however a 74.1% improve in Bitcoin’s present value would see it hit $59,200.
Markus Thielen, head of analysis at digital asset monetary companies agency Matrixport reached an analogous determine in an Oct. 19 publish, estimating Bitcoin may rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF utility is authorized.
Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market measurement to achieve $26.5 trillion within the second yr after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third yr.
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Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would influence its value prediction.
Nevertheless, he stated the estimates have been nonetheless conservative and didn’t consider “second-order results” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
“Within the near-term, we count on different international/worldwide markets to comply with the U.S. in approving + providing related Bitcoin ETF choices to a wider inhabitants of buyers,” Yu wrote.
He added “2024 may very well be a giant yr for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the likelihood that charges have peaked or will peak within the close to time period.”
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