Spot ETH ETFs have 50% chance of May approval: Bitwise, Grayscale, Galaxy execs

Executives at three asset administration companies agreed throughout a Feb. 13 panel dialogue that pending spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% probability of approval this Might.

Matt Hougan, World Head of Analysis for Bitwise Asset Administration, stated

“I believe it’s possible we are going to get an ETH ETF moderately quickly. I believe there’s a 50/50 probability by Might … “

Steve Kurz, World Head of Galaxy Asset Administration, agreed that there’s a 50% probability of a spot Ethereum ETF approval by Might. He additionally predicted a 75% probability by the top of 2024.

Dave LaValle, World Head of ETFs at Grayscale, additionally positioned approval odds at 50% by Might. On whether or not Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) within the occasion of a rejection, LaValle stated: “We’ll have to attend and see the way it performs out. We have now to take a look at the info.”

Grayscale beforehand compelled the SEC to assessment its spot Bitcoin ETF utility via authorized motion. The SEC cited the case as one cause for approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

The 50% odds expressed by every govt broadly align with different predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there’s a 50% probability {that a} spot Ethereum ETF will probably be accepted in Might. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart — a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who hosted right now’s panel dialogue — has predicted 60% approval odds. Lastly, a Polymarket prediction market means that approval odds by the top of Might are 48%.

Eight companies intend to supply an ETH ETF

Of the three companies listed above, solely Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have a spot Ethereum ETF utility pending with regulators.

Different spot Ethereum ETF candidates embody VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Constancy, and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC should approve or reject VanEck’s utility by Might 23. Although it is not going to essentially approve the fund, it’s going to doubtless resolve on different related functions on the identical time.

No spot Ethereum ETF exists on the US market at current. Bitwise presently affords two Ethereum futures ETFs, which don’t present publicity to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale affords an Ethereum Belief and an Ethereum Futures Belief, each of which it intends to transform to ETFs. Many different asset managers additionally supply Ethereum futures ETFs.