Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying

Art work by Tarek Chemaly (2018)

One other submit with a protracted title. However once more, I couldn’t keep away from it. I used to be speaking offline to political scientist, an actual one not a kind of foolish speaking heads that pop up on TV and begin guessing, and he mentioned “nobody is aware of what is occurring, it will change from hour to hour” – already the seismic shock of the admission of the loss of life of Hassan Nasrallah by Hizbollah has despatched shockwaves on all fronts, not least of all inside. The repercussions of shedding such a seasoned participant is akin to when Rafic Hariri was assassinated in 2005, It was a puzzle whose components have been thrown within the air and now being recofigured, in a unique form, with a unique image, and similar gamers minus one. However once more, identical to Hariri had a agency grip on the constituents of the state, similar goes for Nasrallah.

And clearly, this begs the query – now what? Late author John Le Carre as soon as mentioned “society is unconcerned with the aftermath of sensation.” We at the moment are on the entrance pages of newspapers, worldwide, however quickly a unique disaster will emerge and dethrone us. And if we’re going to rely on the Lebanese politicians, who’ve confirmed to look after nobody however their very own pursuits (although, reality be informed, their longevity within the enterprise may show they’re doing a great work caring for themselves – besides properly, those that have been assassinated) then we may be caught in the identical loop.

As a result of as it’s half one million folks have fled the south of the Lebanon occupying as many governmental colleges as attainable (colleges which aren’t outfitted to deal with them), and – whereas lots of people are doing splendid work on the bottom distributing mattresses and meals for them, already the Lebanese society is stretched to the intense between the monetary, political, and financial crash it has been dealing with since 2019 – to not point out the inflow of Syrians who fled their very own nation for apparent causes. And now we’re on the gates of winter, and folks’s goodwill shall quickly dry up.

Which brings us again to: Anybody who says they know what will occur is mendacity