Australia went into the latest COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan with excessive hopes of being anointed to host the COP31 2026 assembly in Adelaide alongside our Pacific neighbours, a promise Labor took to the 2022 election.
Now Türkiye stands in the best way.
It’s refusing to cede to Australia the fitting to host regardless of the bid having the assist of 29 largely western European states which might be liable for the choice.
At COP29, Turkish representatives had been reportedly in search of to undermine Australia’s marketing campaign by portraying us as unfit to host given we’re a significant contributor to fossil gas emissions.
It’s an argument Australia might discover troublesome to counter.
For many years Australia has been perceived as a laggard on the yearly Convention of the Events local weather negotiations, most infamously with its insistence on the “Australia clause” on the Kyoto negotiations which gave Australia a 108% enhance in greenhouse gasoline emissions whereas the overwhelming majority of states agreed to a discount of round 5%.
The every day “Fossil of the Day” awarded by Environmental Non-Governmental Organisations (ENGOs) at COP, has been gained by Australia greater than some other nation for its typically intransigent behaviour.
In Baku this month, Australia, seeking to transfer previous its earlier poor COP performances, agreed to contribute $50 million to the Loss and Harm Fund, making it the sixth largest contributor.
It promised an extra $125 million funding into the Pacific area’s renewable power transition. This comprised $75 million for the Renew Pacific program which is able to underwrite off-grid and neighborhood scale renewable power, and $50 million to fund the Australia-Pacific Partnership for Vitality Transition which is able to assist Pacific states to make sure they higher obtain the advantages of ongoing renewable power investments.
Australia additionally referred to as for an formidable and equitable understanding of the Collective Quantifiable Purpose (NCQG) to each recognise and depend important Loss and Harm funding throughout the goal.
Regardless of this, the Australian delegation, led by Setting Minister Chris Bowen, was referred to as out in week two of negotiations by a coalition of NGOs to be extra supportive of the Lesser Developed International locations’ (LDCs) positions given they may inevitably bear the brunt of local weather change-related harm.
They argued that the idea of loss and harm be prioritised throughout the new local weather finance purpose. Nonetheless, their plea fell on deaf ears as Bowen left earlier than the ultimate plenary so he might attend Parliament again in Canberra.
Australia was fiercely criticised at COP29 for its ongoing insurance policies supporting the extraction and use of fossil fuels, regardless of arguing it desires to be a “renewable power superpower” promoting “inexperienced hydrogen” to the world.
Erin Ryan of the Local weather Motion Community argued that Australia, as a rich nation and an enormous fossil gas exporter, “didn’t drive larger ambition”.
“That is about realism. Getting higher monetary preparations is essential to getting world assist for speedy fossil-fuel phase-out globally,” she mentioned.
This mixture of poor popularity, lack of management and the relative paucity of economic commitments might harm Australia.
Not even Bowen’s conferences along with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum, might persuade them to budge.
Bowen supplied Türkiye a key position at COP31 on constructing resilience however the nation declined with out making a counter-offer, arguing it was a superior candidate as a result of it was higher positioned to behave as a hyperlink between developed nations and LDCs.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised the matter with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the G20 Summit in Rio however was additionally rebuffed.
Australian and Pacific ministers argued not resolving the choice at Baku would undermine preparations wanted to host the large-scale occasion.
The Turks remained unmoved. A call has nonetheless not been made.
Australia must search to burnish its local weather change credentials for the subsequent yr by means of concrete actions and continued monetary assist, notably within the South Pacific, if its want to host its first local weather COP is to be achieved.
On the identical time, it must redouble its diplomatic appeal offensive with different states and world civil society if it is ready to see off the specter of Türkiye internet hosting COP31.
Nonetheless, that job shall be made harder as a result of its well-won popularity as a local weather “foot dragger”. Then there may be the worry that the Albanese authorities might not survive subsequent yr’s election, resulting in the return of the Liberal-Nationwide Coalition which has proven a normal distaste for world local weather cooperative motion.
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