Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week at its highest levels in nearly eight months as bulls propel the market to $85,000.
Key points:
- Bitcoin hit $85,248 on Monday, marking its highest levels since Jan. 29.
- BTC price action is approaching the breakeven point for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors near $86,000.
- Markets eyed oil prices below $94 per barrel and bond yields amid talk of US-Iran war diplomacy.
Bitcoin passes $85,000 after weekly close
Bitcoin is facing a key breakout at the time of writing as it hits $85,000 and sets new 33-week highs. Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD advancing after setting a weekly close of $81,120 on Sunday, its highest since the week of May 4.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Crypto short liquidations spiked as a result, with CoinGlass putting the cross-crypto 24-hour total at over $600 million.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
The latest move higher has implications for the views of many market participants on whether price will hold above the prior local high of $82,950 from May. Last week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital described Bitcoin as facing a “moment of truth” as it coiled up below this level.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Rekt Capital warned that a bearish divergence was playing out on the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on daily time frames, where lower highs for the indicator came with higher highs for price. He stated that this indicates a lack of underlying momentum to support the highs, increasing the risk of a sudden reversal.
With the return to $84,000, the daily RSI is approaching “overbought” territory at 70 at the time of writing. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,769, previously marked as a key prerequisite for upside continuation.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-week EMA; RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin ETF investors near breakeven point
Various investor cohorts also returned to aggregate profit, including Bitcoin corporate treasuries, holdings of which have a cost basis of around $80,500. Now, price is approaching its cost basis for investors in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Per data by onchain analytics platform Glassnode, this cost basis currently sits at $85,638.
Bitcoin cost-basis data. Source: Glassnode on X.com
Bitcoin exchange-traded products saw a strong finish to the week, as investors added BTC exposure during a rally to $81,000. US ETFs saw net inflows of $435 million on Friday, their largest daily tally since Sept. 3, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors.
Despite the CLARITY Act failing to advance in the Senate last week, Thursday saw two US regulators — the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — move ahead with crypto-related policies. This provided a boost to crypto stocks and appeared to lift the mood among investors, with $159 million in net crypto ETF inflows on the day.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Fidelity Investments
In a departure from the norm, the largest Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), did not account for the lion’s share of inflows. Instead, most investors piled into Fidelity Investments’ Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which accounted for $310 million of the total. In their analysis of recent market developments, the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant discussed this change in ETF netflow composition.
“The key change is therefore not simply positive ETF activity, but a clear redistribution of flow leadership: IBIT went from dominating FBTC by nearly six times on September 3 to FBTC recording almost three times IBIT’s holdings netflow on September 18,” CryptoQuant stated in a blog post.
Oil falls as Trump hints at Iran dialogue
A comparatively quiet week for US macro data prints is shifting the focus firmly onto oil as inflation expectations for the remainder of 2026 are adjusting higher.
After spiking above $100 per barrel last week, WTI crude oil traded below $94 on Monday amid hopes of fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation in the Middle East.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
On Sunday, Majed Al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said that attempts to restart talks between the US and Iran had been ongoing “for the past couple of weeks.”
“A lot of ideas have been thrown back and forth,” he told Bloomberg.
“This is just one iteration of these documents going back and forth, and we’re trying to bridge the gap and find the right moment to move forward.”
In a telephone call with Fox News on Sunday, US president Donald Trump reportedly described his options in the Iran conflict as “wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal.” Trump added that he would “probably be open” to meeting with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly this week.
Markets see two more Fed rate hikes in 2026
As Cointelegraph reported, the shutdown of several oil-shipping routes has already had knock-on effects for fuel prices worldwide. Even as central banks are tightening policy by hiking interest rates, the full impact of the supply shock is yet to be felt. Last week, Saudi Arabia warned the EU that its refineries would not be receiving shipments in October.
The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect the US Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by another 0.25% at its October meeting. The odds of this outcome sit at 53% as of Monday. The CME also shows a near 40% chance of a third 0.25% hike before the end of the year.
Fed target-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin will speak to the CFA Society Baltimore in an appearance that could shed further light on the Fed’s current inclination on future policy. Barkin is due to provide “insights on the current economic landscape, the latest monetary policy developments, and his outlook for the U.S. economy.”
Analysis sees stocks holding gains as yields cool
US bond yields continued to come down from multidecade highs on Monday as borrowing costs fell with oil’s retreat.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
The US 30-year yield traded at 5.301% on Monday, having cooled from its highs of 5.425% seen on Sept. 11, with these marking its highest levels since June 2004.
US 30-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
After reacting positively to the announcement of US bond-market interventions in August, Bitcoin market participants continue to monitor any events surrounding yields. In a report for CME on Sept. 16, Jim Iuorio, CEO of JI Financial Strategies, argued that interventions may represent a liquidity tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto markets.
“Perhaps markets viewed these actions as being dollar-negative, pushing money back into dollar hedges like gold and Bitcoin,” he said.
In its latest analysis, Mosaic Asset Company saw the potential for stocks to preserve their own strength amid tightening macro conditions.
“While investors are wondering what the Fed’s rate hiking cycle means for the S&P 500, evidence of strong economic growth should help keep the earnings outlook in tact. As long as the Fed is hiking at a measured pace that doesn’t call into question the growth outlook, the rally in equities can persist,” it summarized at the weekend.
