Bitcoin’s (BTC) market habits just isn’t but “synonymous” with earlier bear market bottoms, one of many main crypto analysts argues.
In a Twitter thread on Sept. 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of knowledge useful resource Woobull, offered three examples of why BTC/USD ought to nonetheless have additional to fall.
Regardless of many calling a brand new macro value backside throughout June’s journey to $17,600, not everyone seems to be assured that Bitcoin will keep away from a retest.
For Woo, there may be nonetheless motive to imagine that decrease ranges will mark the brand new value ground — and this could possibly be anyplace, together with under $10,000.
“Underwater” provide wanting backside zone
One metric Woo flags is the share of the general BTC provide held at a loss — now price greater than the value at which it final moved.
In earlier bear markets, value bottoms coincided with greater than 60% of cash being underwater.
“When it comes to max ache, the market has not felt the identical ache as prior bottoms,” he warned alongside a chart from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode.
In accordance with that chart, 52% of the availability is at present at a loss, and in an effort to hit the 60% mark, BTC/USD would want to dip to simply $9,600.
Woo added that on the pit of Bitcoin’s prior bear markets, provide at a loss “cleanly” pierced a long-term development line, one thing additionally but to occur this time round.
Value foundation edges towards goal zone
One other telltale signal of the Bitcoin market bottoming lies within the composition of its investor base — long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
Usually, on the backside, STHs have a decrease value foundation than LTHs. Which means that STHs paid much less for his or her cash than LTHs, the latter outlined as these hodling BTC for 155 days or extra.
“We’re shut, however not there but. Some extra time to burn IMO,” Woo commented.
Beforehand, David Puell, creator of the Puell A number of indicator, flagged differences in cost basis as an “interesting” factor to consider for analysts.
Accumulation not “synonymous” with history
Finally, hodlers big and small still need to accumulate harder, Woo concludes.
Related: BTC price clings to $20K as US stocks lose the equivalent of 4 Bitcoin market caps
Alongside a Glassnode chart of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that in 2022, BTC has not been flowing from sellers to “urgent” buyers at a comparable rate to before.
“So far we haven’t had the levels of accumulation synonymous to prior bottoms,” he explained.
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