Australian Trump supporters like Rinehart, Pratt silent on tariffs

Whereas the media is having conniptions about Mad King Donald’s on-again-off-again-exempted-unexempted metal and aluminium tariffs, some apparent questions are going unasked.

For instance, the place are Australia’s diehard MAGA supporters relating to defending Australia’s financial pursuits?

How about billionaire heiress Gina Rinehart, maybe our highest-profile Trump fan? Has she criticised the attainable imposition of tariffs on Australia’s exports? Up to now, crickets — despite the fact that Rinehart, as an enormous provider of iron ore to China, has a vested curiosity in metal markets.

What about Anthony Pratt, who’s such an enormous Trump fan he’s transferring to the US? Nothing from him.

How about all of the Trump followers at Sky Information? Did they create their typical perception and intelligence to standing up for Australia’s exporters? No, they bagged Anthony Albanese as an alternative. Quelle shock.

The opposite query is how a lot affect the tariffs may have on Australia.

The AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver stated in a observe on Tuesday, “Even when Australian exports usually are not exempted from US tariffs the direct financial affect can be minor … metal and aluminium exports to the US are simply 0.03% of [Australian] GDP”.

As Oliver goes on to notice, the actual downside for Australia in Trump’s tariffs is in decrease ranges of world commerce and a success to Chinese language and international GDP, which can move via to decrease demand for our exports to China and different necessary markets.

Our expertise when China itself tried to bully Australia into line with tariffs and bans suggests how the affect may be muted.

Analysis by the US Research Centre appeared on the affect of the Chinese language actions and it was extremely assorted throughout industries. Cotton, for instance, thrived after the preliminary affect through new relationships with consumers in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. Cotton exports to Vietnam greater than tripled between 2018 and 2022; by 2022, Australia was the nation’s second-largest supply of cotton. The advantages lasted past the top of China’s actions — in 2023, 36% of Australian cotton went to Vietnam.

China’s ban on Australian coal had minimal affect, particularly as soon as Russia’s assault on Ukraine precipitated a worldwide power value spike, with coal exporters discovering consumers in Japan and Europe. The ban merely pressured China to import cheaper, however lower-grade coal from Indonesia.

Barley producers additionally discovered new markets elsewhere, however costs have been decrease. The lifting of China’s restrictions noticed shipments swap again to China and better costs. And Australian wine exporters struggled because of China’s punitive tariffs on account of a worldwide wine glut.

What’s clear concerning the mad king’s aluminium tariffs is that he could be nicely suggested to exempt Australian imports. America’s aluminium manufacturing capability, which has been in long-term decline, merely can’t change the tens of millions of tonnes at the moment imported. The consequence, inevitably, can be hovering aluminium costs within the US. Costs are already on the rise and can feed via into essential industries like automotive manufacturing, development and packaging.

As for metal, Australia now ships little metal to America. The overwhelming provide of Australian-owned metal within the American market comes from BlueScope’s 1-million-tonne-a-year electrical arc furnaces and rolling mills in Ohio. BlueScope, which is a serial person of Australia’s infamous protectionist “anti-dumping scheme”, is now America’s fifth largest metal producer and actually can be a serious beneficiary of the upper tariffs on imports. Unsurprisingly, Bluescope’s share value has hit a two-month excessive.

Have one thing to say about this text? Write to us at letters@crikey.com.au. Please embrace your full identify to be thought-about for publication in Crikey’s Your Say. We reserve the proper to edit for size and readability.