Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won’t go higher than $138K in 2025

BItcoin (BTC) retains a $138,000 worth goal for 2025 because the market recovers from US commerce tariffs, new evaluation concludes.

Information overlaying bets on prediction service Polymarket means that BTC/USD may nonetheless acquire round 60% from present ranges this 12 months.

“Conservative” Polymarket customers cap BTC worth upside at 60%

Bitcoin bull market projections have taken a beating this quarter because of a number of setbacks impacting crypto and the broader risk-asset spectrum.

Now, an evaluation of all potential BTC worth outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle could also be capped at round 60% earlier than 2026.

The outcomes have been uploaded to X by person Ashwin on March 27 and present that worth bets lengthen all the way in which all the way down to $59,000.

“The wonderful thing about this evaluation is that it not solely offers a market sentiment rating, just like the Concern and Greed Index, but additionally attaches to it the anticipated worth goal for each bearish and bullish eventualities,” he defined. 

“This presents a reference to match one’s worth prediction with the market’s.”

Ashwin deconstructed the methodology used to research odds throughout a number of Polymarket arenas, leading to a possible BTC worth vary between $59,040 and $138,617.

“The $138k Bitcoin worth goal might not appear bullish to most Bitcoiners, who’re accustomed to listening to hyperbolic valuations. Nonetheless, the market stays conservative because it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued.

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic these elsewhere. On fellow prediction web site Kalshi, one common BTC worth goal stands at $122,000 — simply $11,500 past present all-time highs.

Bitcoin assist failure stays a threat

As Cointelegraph continues to report, market individuals have drawn traces within the sand that worth motion shouldn’t violate in an effort to defend the broader bull market.

Associated: Bitcoin worth simply ditched a 3-month downtrend as ‘key shift’ begins

These embody the world round previous all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000.

Earlier this month, a traditionally correct forecasting device, which its creator describes as displaying the place Bitcoin “received’t be” sooner or later, gave a 95% likelihood of $69,000 holding.

In his newest replace, well-liked dealer Aksel Kibar harassed that the yearly common of $76,000 should keep in place.

“Extraordinarily vital for the value to not breach the year-long common,” he advised X followers on March 26.

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.