Bitcoin’s ‘digital gold’ claim challenged as traders move into bonds and gold hits new highs

April 2 is shaping as much as be a pivotal second in international commerce coverage. US President Donald Trump has dubbed it “Liberation Day,” in reference to when new tariffs—exceeding 20%—will hit imports from over 25 nations. In response to The Wall Road Journal, the administration can also be weighing “broader and better tariffs” past this preliminary wave, that means that April 2nd is unlikely to be the tip of financial uncertainty.

Markets reacted negatively over the previous week, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.5%, whereas the Nasdaq 100 slid 5%, underscoring investor nervousness. On the identical time, gold surged 4%, reaching a document excessive above $3,150 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.2%, whilst latest inflation knowledge confirmed an uptick in a few of the core parts. 

The markets’ is a traditional signal of a risk-off setting—one that always precedes financial contraction.

All through the volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 6%—comparatively modest in comparison with its historic volatility, however this doesn’t make it a dependable hedge simply but, though its rising function as a reserve asset suggests this might shift over time.

Bonds and gold lead the flight to security.

In durations of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability, buyers usually search yield-bearing and traditionally steady belongings. Each US authorities bonds’ lowering yield and gold costs’ improve sign an rising demand for a majority of these belongings.

Gold is having a standout second. Over the previous two months, gold funds have attracted greater than $12 billion in internet inflows, in keeping with Bloomberg—marking the most important surge of capital into the asset since 2020.

For the reason that starting of the 12 months,  gold costs have been up almost +17%, whereas the S&P 500 has been down 5%. This exhibits a precarious state of the financial system, additional confirmed by a pointy drop within the US client sentiment, which has fallen round 20 factors to succeed in ranges not seen since 2008. In March, simply 37.4% of Individuals anticipated inventory costs to rise over the subsequent 12 months—down almost 10 factors from February and 20 factors under the height in November 2024.

As The Kobeissi Letter put it, 

“An financial slowdown has clearly begun.”

Bitcoin: digital gold or tech proxy?

A Matrixport chart exhibits that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is now 70% correlated with the Nasdaq 100—a degree reached solely twice earlier than. This implies that macro forces are nonetheless shaping Bitcoin’s short-term strikes, very like tech shares.

The ETF knowledge helps this development. After a powerful week of inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs noticed a internet outflow of $93 million on March 28, in keeping with CoinGlass. The full Bitcoin ETP belongings below administration have dropped to $114.5 billion, the bottom in 2025.

The numbers present that Bitcoin remains to be perceived extra as a speculative tech proxy and is but to enter a brand new part of market habits. Nevertheless, some indicators of this potential transition are already obvious.

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Bitcoin is on the trail to turning into a reserve asset

Beneath the volatility, a structural shift is underway. Corporations are more and more utilizing Bitcoin and its ETFs to diversify their steadiness sheets.

In response to Tipranks, 80.8% of BlackRock’s IBIT shares are owned by public corporations and particular person buyers. Moreover, in Feb. 2025, BlackRock included a 1% to 2% allocation of IBIT into its goal allocation portfolios, reflecting rising institutional adoption.

Knowledge from BitcoinTreasuries exhibits that publicly listed corporations at present maintain 665,618 BTC, and personal corporations maintain 424,130 BTC. Collectively, that’s 1,089,748 BTC—roughly 5.5% of the entire provide (excluding misplaced cash). These figures underscore the rising acceptance of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. What’s extra, some specialists predict that holding BTC in company treasury will grow to be a regular observe by the tip of the last decade. 

Elliot Chun, a accomplice on the crypto-focused M&A agency Architect Companions, stated in a March 28 weblog publish:

“I anticipate that by 2030, 1 / 4 of the S&P 500 may have BTC someplace on their steadiness sheets as a long-term asset.”

The character of any asset is outlined by the perspective of those that personal it. As extra companies undertake Bitcoin for treasury diversification—and as sovereign entities start experimenting with Bitcoin reserves—the cryptocurrency’s profile is shifting. The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, as imperfect as it’s, contributes to this development.

It’s too early to name Bitcoin a full-fledged hedge. Its value remains to be primarily pushed by short-term hypothesis. However the transition is underway. As adoption grows throughout nations, corporations, and people, Bitcoin’s volatility will doubtless lower, and its utility as a partial hedge will improve.

For now, the protected haven label could also be aspirational. But when present traits proceed, it may not be for lengthy.

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.