Bloomberg analysts' rankings show Litecoin leading altcoin ETF approval race, while XRP trails

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have launched their newest approval odds for spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, with XRP receiving the bottom likelihood.

In keeping with the most recent estimates, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% likelihood of approval, adopted by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70% — XRP trails the others with a 65% probability of approval.

Balchunas highlighted:

“Remember all of these things (besides Litecoin which was all the time excessive) was <5% previous to election. So these are actually good odds comparatively talking, and can seemingly develop the extra we see these undergo the everyday course of.”

The US Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) just lately acknowledged the 19b-4 types of Litecoin ETF, boosting their approval odds. Balchunas just lately said that LTC merchandise verify “all of the bins,” seeing no purpose for the SEC to withdraw the filings.

Moreover, the analysts consider Litecoin is more likely to be thought of a commodity since its a fork of Bitcoin that carries the identical proof-of-work consensus algorithm and didn’t conduct any pre-sales.

The identical goes for DOGE, which the analysts consider will even be thought of a commodity, seemingly for a similar purpose as LTC and Bitcoin (BTC). In the meantime, the SEC labeled SOL and XRP as securities in numerous lawsuits.

That is most likely why DOGE ETFs have 5% larger odds of approval than Solana regardless of the SEC not acknowledging DOGE funds’ 19b-4 types as of press time.

Important adjustments

Nevertheless, the analysts famous that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Job Pressure may assessment the SEC’s classification of XRP and SOL as securities by the tip of 2025. This might considerably change the chances of the ETFs associated to those cryptos being accredited.

Concerning the SEC’s consideration to filings, Seyffart stated that each XRP and DOGE ETFs will seemingly be acknowledged this week.

In the meantime, Balchunas stated that whereas their present evaluation solely consists of 1933 Act filings, much like BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, different buildings similar to 40 Act futures-based ETFs or Cayman-subsidiary funds may additionally emerge.

With growing stress on the SEC to offer regulatory readability and rising institutional demand for crypto funding merchandise, 2025 may mark a big turning level for spot altcoin ETFs.

Seyffart and Balchunas have already predicted a “wave of crypto ETFs” this yr on account of a extra favorable regulatory panorama within the US underneath the present administration.