Brisbane Lions have a terrible losing streak at the MCG, but it’s not the worst in AFL history

Familiarity might be reassuring: a cushty feeling of understanding the place every thing is.

Footy grounds are generally the identical. Realizing the variety of steps from the rooms to the race, and the race to the bottom. Understanding how the lights hit the eyes at evening, or how the stands form how shadows type within the late afternoon.

Some gamers and sides revel within the habits of dwelling, whereas others relish time on the street.

On the weekend, the footy world noticed an instance of a group that struggles at one specific location.

Coming in as one of many league’s prime 4 sides, the Brisbane Lions had been extensively anticipated to make brief work of the struggling Hawks on the MCG.

As an alternative, their focus slipped away within the second half, shedding the sport and their spot within the 4.

It was their twelfth consecutive loss in the course of the home-and-away season on the MCG, probably the most in a row by anyone group on the floor since Footscray’s 13 straight losses between 1994 and 1996.

After the sport, coach Chris Fagan was at a loss to clarify why they struggled on the floor.

“The reply is, I do not know,” Fagan stated.

Given the street to the Premiership Cup goes by way of the MCG, the reply to the Lions’ struggles on the floor may be necessary to their September hopes.

Or it may very well be simply dangerous luck.

The massive streaks

Brisbane’s shedding streak on the G is lengthy, stretching again to 2014. But it surely’s not practically the longest on report.

That honour falls to the Swans at Princes Park, who dropped 34 video games in a row, largely to Hawthorn and Carlton, between 1966 and 1987.

Most of these streaks occurred within the early days of footy — eras of mud pits and part-timers, and sure golf equipment being non-competitive for many years at a time. Trying extra just lately clarifies the problem.

For a lot of golf equipment, the worst streaks are both brief, intense durations of losses at dwelling, or a long time of distress at Kardinia Park.

Curiously, the present streak by the Lions is not even the longest shedding streak by a Brisbane group on the MCG. That honour falls to the Bears between 1989 and 1996, within the darkest days for the northern membership.

It isn’t even the longest present shedding streak the Lions presently have in Victoria. As an alternative, their struggles in opposition to the Cats take that honour, having misplaced 13 there on the bounce.

However the longest shedding streak at a floor within the AFL period is not a case of an interstate group scuffling with journey hundreds, however as an alternative the story of a facet struggling in opposition to ineptitude. Between 2008 and 2015, Melbourne struggled mightily, barely rising out of the underside 4 on the ladder.

It is no shock that the Dees racked up 22 losses on the run at Docklands, largely as a result of it was simple to see them lose at the moment.

They misplaced in all sorts of methods at Docklands — blowouts as the house group in entrance of meagre crowds, shut ones because the away group in entrance of hoards of rival followers.

They misplaced from the beginning of March to the top of August, on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays. Early afternoon or late at evening, it did not matter — they simply misplaced.

Till they did not. Their drought-breaking win on the Dome got here within the final spherical of the 2015 season, in opposition to a rising GWS facet.

Since then, the Demons have gained 12 out of 18 video games at Docklands, together with three wins on the best way to their well-known 2021 Flag.

It is a comparable story for a lot of Brisbane’s shedding streak on the MCG.

Brisbane had been one of many league’s battlers for a lot of the previous 20 years, regardless of their success within the first 4 years of the century and the final 4 years. For half of the streak, Brisbane had been one of many worst groups within the league.

Two MCG tenants, Richmond and Melbourne, each rose to turn out to be premiership sides in the course of the period when Brisbane additionally got here good, whereas two dangerous losses to weaker Hawthorn sides stand out as the 2 stand-out poor performances by the Lions in recent times.

Of the Lions’ losses on the floor, they could have solely been favoured in three or 4 of the match-ups.

Nonetheless, there may be one other issue or two in play.

A crowded home

There are a number of components that go into why groups win extra at dwelling than on the street: Journey, floor dimensions, normal familiarity, and the followers are all stated to play a job.

COVID-19 offered the prospect to look at and discover quite a lot of small-world points utilizing the scenario offered. Considered one of these items was the affect of dwelling grounds in sporting occasions.

The speed of dwelling groups profitable dropped for sporting occasions held in “dwelling” stadiums with out followers current throughout COVID.

Many have speculated that a big proportion of dwelling floor benefit is right down to the fan affect on the sport, and particularly affect on umpires. Within the 2018 ebook Footballistics, James Coventry, Darren O’Shaughnessy and Matt Cowgill surmised that the umpires pay two additional free kicks at dwelling.

These two free kicks are likely to equate to a four-point swing between the perimeters.

The AFL in 2020 did not get a full pure experiment in empty stadia like many abroad leagues due to the lopsided nature of hubbed play.

Victorian groups barely performed an actual dwelling sport all yr, whereas WA groups started and NSW groups completed the season with lengthy durations of hubbing.

This left some sides having fun with dwelling benefit in opposition to groups stranded away from dwelling.

Crowd dimension and partisanship within the AFL seem to affect on the diploma of dwelling benefit. It seems particularly pronounced when an even bigger Victorian group is flying.

Interstate guests taking part in in Melbourne in entrance of bumper crowds are likely to traditionally lose 70 per cent of video games.

Numerous these video games mirror excessive fan expectations for a powerful dwelling group, with the home-win price additionally drifting up for Victorian derby video games with bigger crowds.

Guests to Victoria have a neater time in opposition to small crowds, usually dealing with struggling groups in such fixtures.

Curiously, the impact of a large crowd hasn’t been absolutely reciprocated outdoors of Melbourne.

The bottom

One issue usually cited in discussions over floor data is sort of definitely not having an affect — the scale and form of the MCG.

One pundit, former Hawk and Demon Jordan Lewis, acknowledged that

That is regardless of the 2 grounds being virtually similar in dimension.

Evaluation by the ABC beforehand has proven that floor dimension has little affect on AFL video games’ congestion or sport type.

Even when there have been extra of a discernible affect by variable floor dimension, the MCG is the final place we might discover it relative to the Gabba, since Brisbane’s fortress is the first dwelling floor most comparable in dimensions to the MCG.

Trying to find the reply

So what’s the reason behind Brisbane’s struggles? It seems a giant a part of it’s right down to who they performed, and when.

The nineteenth man additionally certainly performed a job on the margins.

There’s additionally a vital piece of data lacking — their efficiency within the video games that depend probably the most.