Cosmos ($ATOM) is the coin that powers your complete Cosmos ecosystem. It consists of quite a lot of initiatives from totally different spheres similar to finance, decentralized exchanges (DEX), and cloud computing. The earliest value knowledge I can discover for $ATOM is from Kraken, beginning in April 2019. Utilizing this value knowledge, the rest of the article represents my finest efforts to use Elliott Wave Principle (EWT) to isolate its placement in market buildings. I’ll assume that you’ve some data of EWT to know the phrases, however I’ve additionally included a small glossary on the backside for reference.
EWT Abstract
Cosmos Worth Information from Kraken | Supply: ATOMUSD on tradingview.com.
Cycle Wave 0 – Mar 2020 – $1.1151
Main Wave 1 – $2.4794
Main Wave 2 – $1.8482 (38.2% LFR)
Main Wave 3 – $32.2433 (3.618 LFE)
Main Wave 4 – $7.872 (50% LFR)
Main Wave 5 – $44.7383 (1.236 LFE)
Cycle Wave 1 – Sep 2021 – $44.7383
Main Wave A – $20.2221 (Contracting, Main Diagonal)
Main Wave B – $33.2641 (Contracting Triangle)
Main Wave C – $5.5409 (Impulse)
Cycle Wave 2 – Jun 2022 – $5.5409 (50% LFR)
Main Wave 1 – ONGOING
Main Wave 2 – TBA
Main Wave 3 – TBA
Main Wave 4 – TBA
Main Wave 5 – TBA
Cycle Wave 3 – ONGOING
Exploring Additional
EWT makes use of ratios to create value targets. The principle goal being the 1.618 LFE, nonetheless there are the minimal, decrease, and far increased LFE’s to be careful for. For $ATOM we first want to search out the beta a number of to scale the targets off of. That is achieved by taking Wave 1 and dividing it by Wave 0. On this case for the Cycle Wave Diploma it’s roughly 40.12. Then we elevate this a number of to numerous numbers outlined by EWT to create a desk of targets. So as beneath are the LFE Worth Targets:
0.618 – $54.26
1 – $222.3
1.236 – $531.3
1.618 – $2,176.84
Subsequently, if we anticipate $ATOM to be a Diagonal then $54.26 – $222.3 is the popular value field.
If we’re in search of the everyday value field then it’s: $531.3 – $2,176.84.
Nonetheless, because of the nature of the following estimated bull run solely the Intermediate Diploma Wave 3 of the Cycle Wave 3 ought to play out. The following bull run is estimated by many merchants and establishments to peak round late 2024 to early 2026. Benner Cycle Principle additionally places a market peak round 2026. You’ll be able to see the total format for Benner’s Cycle Principle right here. As such, the Intermediate Wave 1 and a pair of are: $17.2656 and $6.17. The beta a number of for the Intermediate Diploma is roughly 3.116. Then as we did for the Cycle Wave Diploma the related typical value field is: $25.14 – $38.81. The upper value bins are all above the ATH for $ATOM. The present value motion for $ATOM is overwhelmingly bullish, so the upper value bins are positively a risk.
Cosmos Worth Information from MEXC | Supply: ATOMUSD on tradingview.com.
Conclusion
Given the following bull run peak for crypto is probably going late 2024 to early 2026 the related LFEs to make use of for $ATOM are on the Intermediate Wave Diploma . The standard value targets for the Intermediate Diploma Wave 3 are $25.14 – $38.81. The worth as I write is $11.3 so the following peak is a tough 2 to three.5x from right here. If the Wave 3 is closely prolonged and probably goes to the two.618 or 3.618 LFE then a brand new ATH is feasible. That might imply a minimal of a 4x from right here to the following peak. The Main Wave 1 of Cycle Wave 3 is probably going due in late 2026 to 2030 utilizing Fibonacci Time Ratios.
Glossary
Elliott Wave Principle (EWT)
“A principle in technical evaluation that attributes wave-like value patterns, recognized at numerous scales, to dealer psychology and investor sentiment.”
Supply: “Elliott Wave Principle: What It Is and Find out how to Use It” by James Chen (2023)
Logarithmic Fibonacci Retracement (LFR)
A measured correction at sure Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Logarithmic Fibonacci Extensions (LFE)
A measured rally at sure Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Supplemental Studying
“Elliott Wave Precept – Key To Market Conduct” by Frost & Prechter (2022)
“Visible Information to Elliott Wave Buying and selling” by Gorman & Kennedy (2013)
“Find out how to Calculate Logarithmic Retracements and Extensions” by C. D. Chester (2023)
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