Crypto Pundit Makes Case For Bitcoin Price At $260,000, But This Invalidation Level Threatens The Rally

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A outstanding crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin worth outlook, predicting a surge to a goal as excessive as $260,000 this bull cycle. Nonetheless, a crucial invalidation degree stands in the way in which of this bullish state of affairs, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached.

On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predicted that the Bitcoin worth might hit a bullish goal between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart means that Bitcoin’s worth motion up to now few years has intently adopted a traditional market cycle construction, transferring by means of the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases.

Bitcoin Worth Eyes New ATH Above $260,000

In keeping with Lagen, Bitcoin has efficiently damaged out of a seven-month re-accumulation section, signaling the potential begin of a strong uptrend. Between late 2022 and early 2023, the cryptocurrency skilled an accumulation section by which good cash entered the market at low costs when BTC had bottomed out. This was adopted by a robust rally that led to a fast worth appreciation to new highs.

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After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin shaped a variety, permitting the market to soak up provide earlier than one other worth breakout. Notably, this pattern continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation section.

Based mostly on the trajectory of Lagen’s worth chart, Bitcoin’s subsequent leg up is a pointy rise to $240,000, adopted by a short correction earlier than rallying to a worth peak between $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and bear a interval of uneven buying and selling, experiencing worth fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000.

Curiously, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATH and the next sideways buying and selling are anticipated to happen throughout its distribution section, which is usually characterised by elevated sell-offs and market volatility. As soon as BTC experiences a remaining surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a worth crash towards $148,000 – $136,000, marking the doable finish of the bull rally and the beginning of the bear market.

Key Invalidation Degree Threatening BTC’s Rally

Lagen’s optimistic worth forecast for Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation degree, which might halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Though Bitcoin’s bullish construction stays intact, the analyst warns {that a} weekly shut beneath the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout.

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As of writing, the Bitcoin worth is consolidating above this key invalidation degree at $73,900. So long as it holds above this degree, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will probably be sustained. Nonetheless, a drop beneath $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s present market worth, might postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether.