Games industry predictions for 2025 part three: Rewarded UA, the year of AI, and price pressure on Western devs

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It is the brand new yr, so which means it is the proper time for our Cell Professionals — a group of video games business specialists — to present their ideas on the yr forward. We requested:

What are your predictions for the video games business in 2025?

You possibly can learn half one in all our predictions collection right here, and half two right here.

Uncover extra concerning the hottest video games business developments of the yr at Pocket Gamer Connects London 2025 on January twentieth to twenty first.

Generative AI in sport improvement: 2025 predictions

AI-generated video games received’t take over

Regardless of fast advances in AI know-how, Massive Language Fashions (LLMs) stay removed from creating full video games autonomously.

Present demonstrations primarily showcase sample recognition and adaptation reasonably than true innovation, usually restricted to easy video games like Flappy Birds, Tetris, or Snake — video games with numerous present implementations that LLMs have encountered in coaching.

The video revolution

As video technology reaches sensible high quality ranges by means of breakthroughs like Open AI’s SORA and Hunyuan video, its impression on sport improvement turns into clearer. The know-how’s rapid software will probably concentrate on sport promoting, enabling fast iteration of promotional content material and idea testing for video games nonetheless in improvement.

3D property: The subsequent frontier

Whereas picture technology has achieved outstanding high quality with fashions like Flux and Steady Diffusion 3.5, the business’s subsequent problem lies in 3D asset technology. Early developments, significantly from CSM AI, recommend 2025 will see 3D technology attain business viability. Fixing the consistency problem

A crucial milestone for sport improvement can be attaining constant character and elegance technology throughout a number of photographs. This functionality, important for each storyboarding and asset creation, lastly seems inside attain due to improvements like Flux Redux, Luma Photon, and different current analysis works.

Trade-wide integration

The adoption of generative AI in sport improvement has change into inevitable. As remaining skepticism fades, these instruments will change into normal throughout all features of improvement — from design and idea artwork to asset technology and Coding.

LLMs: Plateauing however sensible

Whereas LLM capabilities could also be approaching a plateau, their present performance already affords important worth. The focus will shift from breakthrough capabilities to optimising present options and bettering implementation in improvement workflows.

Indie builders empowered

Generative AI is democratising sport improvement, offering unbiased builders with instruments that enable the creation of video games with minimal assets. This can result in a surge in modern and experimental video games from smaller groups.

In 2025, I anticipate AI-driven sport improvement. Instruments powered by AI will proceed to rework workflows, enabling sooner, extra modern creation processes.

Hybrid monetisation fashions will proceed to broaden on the cell video games market. Subscriptions will complement free-to-play techniques, providing new worth propositions for gamers.

We may even see a improvement of a seamless cross-platform ecosystem the place video games will change into more and more accessible throughout units, breaking down limitations for gamers.

Making predictions isn’t straightforward, however I imagine that video games with stress-free and low-pressure gameplay will proceed to carry customers’ consideration. On the similar time, extra intricate and addictive initiatives, like our Ludus, have the potential to draw and retain a broad viewers. In my opinion, such video games will preserve dominating the market.

That stated, as I’ve talked about earlier than, creating video games is turning into more and more difficult with every passing yr. Individuals have much less free time, and we have to supply them experiences which are brief but charming. This is the reason each profitable sport is, in its personal manner, a small miracle!

2025 can be a yr of consolidation and innovation. GenAI will evolve from being a instrument to turning into a real differentiator, reshaping creativity and decision-making.

We’ll additionally see an elevated concentrate on professionalising operations and driving effectivity to guard profitability and gas progress in a maturing market.

Cell sport distribution will proceed to vary. Google and Apple are being compelled to open up at a fast tempo significantly within the UK, US and Japan. Stress on them will improve dramatically in 2025, particularly from the federal government degree.

As AI develops, it could possibly make video games and the video games business extra personalised. Manufacturing occasions will shorten.

In our direct expertise, conversations, and observations from our co-development work with companions in addition to authentic in-house improvement, we imagine that the video games business will begin to flip a nook in 2025 and expertise progress within the coming years.

Whereas there can be continued downward value stress on Western builders, which studios must be ready to deal with, we additionally imagine that there can be renewed curiosity from publishers in funding each authentic and licensed IPs in addition to extensions to present franchises.

Builders with confirmed monitor information, the flexibility to be agile, and an expanded international footprint that helps high-quality, well timed manufacturing can be in a robust place going into 2025 and 2026.

Laborious occasions for small studios and indies, good occasions for large publishers. Extra consolidation in what is going to primarily be a patrons market. 

Rewarded UA will proceed to develop, however I’m anticipating to see consolidation there, in a really comparable vogue.

I’d additionally like to see the rewarded area evolve from specializing in UA to doing extra superior rewards-based engagement metrics— we already do a whole lot of that at ZBD, however thus far it has been simpler for publishers to see the worth in rewarded fashions when tied to UA. This can start to vary.

Carriers and alternate shops will take the lead in cell app distribution 

The app retailer ecosystem is about to shift away from an Apple and Google duopoly to an open panorama as cell carriers regain the facility to attach shoppers with apps.

Rising regulatory adjustments, corresponding to bans that stop Google from incentivising app retailer preloads, will degree the enjoying subject by permitting carriers and machine producers to preload their very own apps and platforms on new units.

This renewed autonomy positions carriers as crucial gamers in different app distribution, enabling natural progress for different app shops. Because of this, carriers will supply builders higher income alternatives past what Apple and Google present, and current shoppers with a extra numerous app choice.

By embracing this strategic benefit, carriers are poised to reclaim their function as app suppliers and drive change within the evolving app retailer atmosphere.

Various app shops will reshape cell distribution by prioritising builders and shoppers

The brand new, open app retailer financial system will prioritise the wants of builders and customers, shifting away from the present mannequin that solely serves Apple and Google.

On this new distribution mannequin, the app retailer ecosystem will see a aggressive, decentralised panorama the place builders have extra management over income and shoppers achieve entry to a greater diversity of apps curated and tailor-made to their wants.

With rising affect of third-party app shops, and as main gamers like Epic Video games and Microsoft push for inclusivity in distribution, the app outlook is about to broaden globally and mirror the thriving different shops seen in Asia.

This shift will allow cell app distribution to be extra inclusive, modern, and consumer-focused, and the worldwide app atmosphere will evolve right into a dynamic market that prioritises innovation and consumer wants.