It is at all times the siren, adopted by the silence after which the tune that will get the mind ticking about what simply occurred and — extra importantly — why it occurred.
On the media convention desk, a coach muses. It is a exhausting factor to do, breaking down what went mistaken publicly minutes after it occurred.
Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan isn’t any stranger to this expertise.
Fagan has confronted the media post-match 157 instances, with 68 coming after losses.
The chatter within the days after the match have been dictated by a brief soundbite from these media conferences.
“It was extra about effort and contest within the second half and turning the ball over virtually unforced at totally different instances,” Fagan stated after the Lions’ 54-point loss to the Giants at Manuka Oval on Anzac Day.
“I do not actually know the reply at this cut-off date. We’ve got no excuses. We simply did not work as exhausting as they did.”
Fagan’s full statements to ABC Sport after the match put the loss in additional context.
He said that many of the underlying figures for the Lions this yr are higher than final season.
For instance, they lead the league for inside-50 differential. They’re additionally within the prime 4 in producing front-half intercepts, very important to the success of each crew.
“One in every of our strengths this yr, our greatest power in all probability, and the place we have been most constant is our crew defence,” he stated.
“We truly have not been leaking a number of scores in opposition to or a number of pictures.”
The Lions have improved their capacity to place stress on opposition sides and their entire ground-defence has improved from a excessive base.
“Up till tonight, a number of our numbers have been higher than they had been final yr when it comes to having the ability to get the ball inside 50 and having the ability to cease the opposition from getting inside 50s,” Fagan stated after the Giants match.
Regardless of some commentators calling Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher lazy, their defensive numbers seem up this yr as properly.
Whereas Cameron’s deal with inside-50 numbers have dipped, his forward-half stress acts have elevated. Cameron stays among the finest defensive small forwards within the sport.
Daniher additionally has extra stress acts per match this yr than every other season throughout his Lions profession.
It is a lot simpler to launch criticism based mostly on one dangerous clip than analyse a full match or a season of efforts to this point.
As an alternative, Fagan pointed to a different space of their sport that may very well be the reason for their points: their once-deadly assault.
“The issue within the first six weeks has been scoring accuracy, dropping marks inside 50, issues like that,” he stated.
Fagan alluded to the 2 kicks thought of to be a very powerful in footy: the kick inside 50 and the shot at purpose.
One places factors on the board and the opposite straight results in the prospect to attain.
Irrespective of how good sides are for the remainder of the match, failure at one or each of those components can solid a crew’s hopes apart.
This yr, the beforehand freewheeling Lions offence is struggling because of failings relating to those crucial kicks.
The entry
Final yr, Fagan instructed ABC Sport that flexibility was an important a part of the Lions’ profitable attacking construction.
“We at all times attempt to combine up our combine. We have small forwards who can mark the ball and are harmful near purpose,” Fagan stated.
“We have tall forwards who can play up the bottom and assist join us up.
“Some weeks it fits us to play our small forwards nearer to purpose and different weeks it fits us to play our talls, as a result of we predict we’d get a bonus with them.”
That flexibility has brought on chaos in opposition defences in earlier seasons. It looks like the stability of roles may be a little bit off this yr.
The kick inside 50 has been damaged down in ever rising element by golf equipment in recent times. From launch zones to hotspots, groups know the place probably the most useful actual property on the bottom is.
Most kicks coming inside 50 come from about 20-30 metres from the arc, sufficient distance out to both launch a brief chip in the direction of a number one participant or bomb it on the top of somebody main again in the direction of purpose.
This launch zone stretches defences and normally makes a aspect’s assault tick.
The effectiveness of those kicks change based mostly on the placement of the launch. Usually scores get larger the nearer to purpose a launch is, however not dramatically after the 60-80 golden zone. Bombs from past which might be extra speculative.
Brisbane’s profile on this respect is comparatively unchanged from final yr. Their kick distance from these spots additionally seems to be broadly following league tendencies.
One other massive a part of the image is who’s doing the kicking and who they’re concentrating on inside 50. Most sides have most well-liked customers: gamers who can pinpoint a goal beneath stress and course of opposing defences.
Discovering the correct gamers to ship the ball inside 50 is crucial to a crew’s attacking possibilities.
This yr, Daniher is the most typical person going inside 50, intently adopted by Hugh McCluggage. That is the identical prime two as final yr however the remainder of the profile has shifted considerably.
The absence of a number of high-quality ball movers and customers in Keidean Coleman, Will Ashcroft and Conor McKenna — all sidelined because of long-term harm — and Daniel Wealthy to retirement seems to have left the load falling extra closely on others who’re maybe much less adept with their supply.
There have been knock-on declines within the effectiveness of different gamers as they take over extra of the position. This has particularly hit Dayne Zorko, but additionally many of the midfield core.
General, the Lions have struggled to undertake ‘high quality’ kicks inside 50. These are the kicks that finish in uncontested marks or marks on leads. The share of these high quality kicks has dropped whereas the variety of kicks to packs has elevated.
That is a suboptimal solution to function up ahead and is indicative of larger timing and connection points between strains.
Equally vital is the participant being focused inside 50.
On the centre of the Lions forward-50 efficiency final season was a stability between the three focal factors of Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Cameron, who had been every recipients of comparable shares of the ball.
Assist acts comparable to Jack Gunston, Lincoln McCarthy and Cam Rayner additionally noticed their justifiable share of the ball coming their means.
This yr, the main focus has shifted strongly in the direction of Daniher, with Hipwood and Cameron focused considerably much less usually.
Changing the departed Gunston is transformed defender Darcy Gardiner, with Lincoln McCarthy and teen Kai Lohmann additionally extra outstanding. Rayner has switched additional upfield.
Fagan made it clear to ABC Sport the change hasn’t been an intentional one.
“We actually have not tried to vary the way in which that we’re enjoying,” Fagan stated after the Giants match.
“It has been a fairly profitable solution to play for the final 5 or so years.”
General, the profile has shifted from a multi-headed monster and secure secondary forwards to 1 main goal and a help solid. At this stage it does not seem to be it has labored.
Astute readers could have famous the commonality between the listing of inside-50 kickers and their targets. This yr your complete forward-entry burden appears to be falling way more closely on one man as each the provider and the goal.
No participant within the league is as concerned in ahead entries as Daniher this yr.
He is not the one twin risk — each a goal and kicker — however he is distinctive when in comparison with Charlie Curnow, Taylor Walker and Jeremy Cameron in main his membership on each side of the ball.
It is the form of multifaceted forward-entry centrality previously seen with Lance Franklin. Sadly, whereas Daniher’s effectivity was above league common in each points final yr, he is slipped considerably this season.
Hipwood, the opposite a part of the tall-forward double act, has additionally collapsed in effectiveness as a ahead goal, falling from among the many best high-frequency ahead targets within the league final yr to the least productive main choice league-wide thus far in 2024.
On common, the Lions are scoring lower than half a degree when he is the participant focused by an inside 50.
Some slack has been picked up by a more practical McCarthy however the big-man tandem is just not working, with Daniher shouldering such a heavy upfield workload.
A part of that is additionally right down to how they’re filling the third tall choice, with Gardiner not displaying greater than flashes in that spot. He is additionally working properly beneath league common when being focused.
Briefly, each elements of the inside-50 kick aren’t working for the time being. And it is no higher when the ball does discover the arms of a Lions ahead.
Kicking objectives
Regardless of the significance of the kick inside 50, the precise shot at purpose nonetheless stays a very powerful act in soccer.
The simplest solution to work out whether or not a crew has made probably the most of their possibilities at purpose is by taking a look at uncooked objectives and behinds from scoring pictures.
It is crude however has some fact to it.
On that measure Brisbane has the worst accuracy within the league, with simply 46 per cent of its scores being objectives.
Lately soccer analysts have give you extra subtle measures of how properly gamers — and groups — carry out in entrance of purpose. Probably the most public of those measures is xScore, which is brief for “anticipated rating”.
The primary public model of xScore for the AFL was developed by Melbourne FC soccer staffer Rob Youthful on his web site Figuring Footy in 2017.
Youthful analysed a number of years value of pictures at purpose to work out how possible a shot can be a purpose relying on the placement and the scenario.
This likelihood was then transformed to an “anticipated” worth between zero and 6. Virtually-certain objectives — like a set-shot from the purpose line — are near a six, whereas a bomb from the centre of the bottom could be near a zero.
The actual ultimate rating for a given sport may be in comparison with xScore to indicate how good a crew’s possibilities had been as distinct from how they really transformed.
This comparability may be vital intelligence for groups who must separate the results of their ahead craft from the tactic behind it.
Since Youthful’s early work all kinds of various xScore measures have been publicly disclosed, however all observe about the identical results-wise.
ABC Sport have used the model developed by Andrew Whelan for WheeloRatings.
The Lions’ 2024 xScore reveals that also they are underperforming in entrance of purpose thus far this yr. This has sapped the momentum of all that useful up-ground work, including to their present forward-line woes.
Final yr, the Lions carried out at simply above league common in keeping with xScore.
The image is especially dangerous in the case of set-shots. Set-shots are the a part of the sport that appears to be probably the most controllable, however can usually be probably the most maddening.
Whereas the Lions’ normal play conversion has been solely only a contact beneath expectations, they’ve been the worst crew within the league on the set-shot.
The Lions have suffered not solely from their very own low set-shot conversion, but additionally the misfortune of going through opponents with scorching set-shot conversions themselves.
Whereas there’s an argument for normal play accuracy to be influenced by issues comparable to stress, an opponent taking their set possibilities is basically out of a crew’s arms.
For instance, the Giants kicked an incredible six objectives from exterior 50 in opposition to the Lions final week, leaving Fagan spellbound.
“I’ve by no means seen a crew kick so properly from exterior 50 as they did tonight. It was unbelievable,” he stated.
All instructed, the Lions may be a few objectives worse off per sport purely from relative shot conversion. That is sufficient to swing video games or make defeats look a lot much less damning.
The highway forward
On the finish of the media convention in Canberra, Fagan waxed lyrical about one of many largest issues that has impacted the Lions’ two-win begin to the yr.
“I do know we have had a troublesome draw to start out the yr,” he stated.
“We have performed the Giants and we have performed Carlton, and we have performed Geelong. We performed Collingwood and Melbourne, so there’s some fairly good groups.”
The Lions have performed the opposite three preliminary finalists from final season thus far this yr. They’ve additionally performed the 2021 and 2022 premiers in addition.
The subsequent eight weeks will see the Lions face one of many best schedules within the league. There’s an actual likelihood that — between random set-shot kicking possibilities and their upcoming fixture — the Lions can be within the prime eight by spherical 16.
They may even be a good bit larger.
If that is the case, all of the hand-wringing round “effort” can be wasted power throughout.
A few of the work Brisbane must do to proper the ship is a little bit tougher, comparable to figuring out that connection going into the attacking 50.
It may imply that Daniher and Cameron revert to enjoying a little bit deeper, with Hipwood roaming larger than regular.
Whatever the fixes, Fagan has religion in his group and is aware of his position in serving to his crew going ahead.
“We are able to play loads higher than that,” Fagan stated after the loss to the Giants.
“We are able to play footy … confidence is a unusual factor in sport. It comes and it goes. I’ve bought to assist these boys discover their confidence and connection once more. That is my job.”
