ITV Racing Tips & Trends

As we head into the second day (Thursday) on the Dante Competition at York we’ve one other high afternoon of flat horse racing to sit up for. The ITV4 cameras are additionally on the Knavesmire once more to absorb the primary 5 races, together with the Dante Stakes (3:35) – a number one Epsom Derby trial.

Andy Newton is available with all of the ITV4 York races this Thursday with key tendencies and ideas.

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RELATED: York Races Immediately – See All Races at York Immediately: Betting, silks runners & riders

York Horse Racing Suggestions and Developments (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

13/13 – Had raced at York earlier than
12/13 – Didn’t win final outing
12/13 – Had gained no less than 4 occasions earlier than
11/13 – Had run within the final 5 weeks
11/13 – Got here from a single-figure draw
11/13 – Completed within the high 5 final outing
10/13 – Aged 6 or older
9/13 – Returned a double-figure worth
7/13 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
7/13 – Favourites positioned
6/13 – Carried 8-10 or much less in weight
2/13 – Skilled by Tim Easterby (final 2 runnings)
1/13 – Profitable favourites
Copper Knight gained the race in 2019 and 2021
2021 Winner: Copper Knight (11/2 jfav)

The Mick Appleby runner – Raasel – is a fast-improving sprinter and he seemed to have a bit extra up his sleeve final time than the top profitable margin steered. He’s fascinating and ought to be ending off properly, however 11 of the final 13 winners got here from a single-figure draw – he’s drawn 11.

Alligator Alley, Digital and Bedford Flyer can all go properly, whereas the busy High-quality Wine has been operating constantly of late and will hit the body once more. However COPPER KNIGHT @ 6/1 with William Hill has landed the final two runnings of this race seems value sticking with.

Sure, he’s up 19lbs from final yr, however he progressed up the ranks once more final season and has been rated this excessive up to now (104). Draw 7 is okay and a latest run at Musselburgh can have him prepared for this.

The opposite that ticks loads of the tendencies is JAWWAAL (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill. This Michael Dods 7 year-old is again from a break however was seventh on this race 12 months in the past and solely crushed 3 lengths. He travelled properly that day however the draw (11) seemed to go in opposition to him within the closing phases. He’s received a greater berth in 6 this time and can love the short floor.

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2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Positioned within the high 4 final outing
14/17 – Received over 1m2f earlier than
14/17 – Favourites positioned
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter within the betting
11/17 – Having first run of the season
10/17 – Profitable favourites (together with 8 of final 13)
9/17 – Had gained no less than 4 occasions earlier than
9/17 – Had raced at York earlier than
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket final outing
4/17 – Had gained at York earlier than
3/17 – Received final outing
3/17 – Skilled by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
1/17 – Irish skilled winners
2021 Winner: Queen Energy (6/4 fav)

This seems set to to be a battle between Sir Michael Stoute, who has two main fancies – Midday Star and Ville De Grace, and the Irish – who ship over Thunder Kiss and Forbearance.

Of that bunch, Thunder Kiss is the top-rated within the area and is an enormous participant after a high win at Cork final outing, however is but to race outdoors G3 firm. Forbearance gained a Listed race right here final season, however the fear together with her is the drop again to 1m2f – all wins final season came to visit 1m4f+.

In order that leaves the Soute runners – Ville De Grace – and NOON STAR @ 10/3 with William Hill. The previous was shut second at HQ final outing and will probably be higher for that run, nevertheless it’s fascinating that Ryan Moore, who rode her that day prefers Midday Star.

This 4 year-old was a head Listed Stakes winner at Nottingham final time over 1m2f and has now gained 3 of her final 6 races. She was additionally runer up within the Musidora Stakes right here final season so the monitor is okay, whereas Moore couldn’t be driving any higher in the meanwhile.

3.00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/16 – Rated between 96-105
15/16 – Had gained over a mile earlier than
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/16 – Favourites positioned within the high 4
11/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/16 – Had raced within the final 6 weeks
10/16 – Got here from a single-figure draw
10/16 – Had gained no less than 4 occasions earlier than
8/16 – Positioned final outing
7/16 – Aged 4 years-old
3/16 – Profitable favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/16 – Received final outing
2021 Winner: Kynren (17/2)

With ALL of the final 16 winners rated between 96-105, then the highest 5 on the cardboard – Bless Him, Brunch, Isla Kai, Cruyff Flip and What’s The Story.

Of that lot, it’s exhausting to disregard the Nigel Tinkler runner – ISLA KAI @ 5/1 with William Hill– who has solely had seven profession runs and gained 4 of them. He returned final months at Newmarket with a cracking 4th of 17 and may now be spot on for this.

Others to notice decrease down the weights are Hortzador, Redarna, La Trinidad, Lightening Firm and Trais Fluors, however CD winner – BRUNCH (e/w) @ 8/1 with William Hill – is the opposite decide. He was a neck runner-up on this 12 months in the past and appears arrange for one more massive show after good runs within the Lincoln (eighth) and the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes final time at Newmarket.

3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/19 – Winners that went onto run within the Epsom Derby (4 gained)
15/19 – Completed third or higher final outing
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter within the betting
13/19 – Had a earlier race that season
12/19 – Received their earlier race
10/19 – Went onto be positioned within the Epsom Derby
5/19 – Had gained over 1m2f earlier than
4/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/19 – Profitable favourites
3/19 – Received by coach Aidan O’Brien (gained it 4 occasions in all)
3/19 – Received by coach Sir Michael Stoute (gained it 6 occasions in all)
3/19 – Received by jockey Ryan Moore
3/19 – Skilled by John Gosden (3 of final 7 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Skilled by Mark Johnston (2 of final 5)
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/19 – Had run at York earlier than
0/19 – Winners from stall 2
Simply 2 profitable favourites within the final 14 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the final Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2021 Winner: Hurricane Lane (5/1)

The James Ferguson yard have a pleasant horse on his fingers in El Bodegon, who is bound to be in style when punters see that his final run in October was a 1 1/2 size beating of final Sunday’s simple winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial – Stone Age.

Nonetheless, that win got here on very tender floor and despite the fact that that type has been given an enormous enhance this 3 year-old colt is but to race on floor faster than good-to-soft – that will be the priority.

We are able to’t ignore something coach Aidan O’Brien ship to publish in the meanwhile – he landed many of the massive races at Chester final week and already holds an enormous hand within the Epsom Derby betting market. He runs Bluegrass right here, with Ryan Moore driving. However he was solely third final outing at Leopardstown and has to this point been unplaced in each runs over 1m2f.

Masekela, for Andrew Balding, has a Derby entry and confirmed first rate type as a 2 year-old final season, however the fear for him and likewise Royal Partronage, who beat him at HQ final Sept, is getting this longer journey.

So, the 2 that look the almost definitely to combat this out are the Gosden runner- Magisterial and the Stoute-trained Desert Crown.

The once-raced Desert Crown is @ 6/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby and already has a tall fame even after simply the one run and win. That got here at Nottingham final November, nevertheless it was an attention grabbing 5 1/2 size success. The small fear although is that got here on tender floor and he’s additionally not had a run since – whereas, most of his important rivals have been on the monitor within the final month or so.

We’ve additionally solely seen 2 profitable Dante Stakes favourites within the final 14 runnings, which might be a detrimental for Desert Crown if he retains his place on the head of the market.

So, the decide is the Frankel colt – MAGISTERIAL @ 7/2 with William Hill. He will probably be in style with Frankie Dettori additionally driving and he returned final month with a pleasant win at Leicester. He’s @ 25/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby – odds that can disappear if he can win this.

He’s clearly an enhancing type and with three profession runs is a good bit extra skilled than Desert Crown (1 run). He additionally seemed to have a bit up his sleeve final time at Leicester and despite the fact that it is a massive step up in grade he’s received highly effective connections that really feel he’s as much as the duty.

4.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f ITV4

10/10 – Had gained over 5f or 6f up to now
8/10 – Received between 1-2 occasions earlier than
8/10 – Positioned within the high 5 final outing
7/10 – Ran not more than 6 occasions
7/10 – Rated between 98-103
7/10 – Drawn in stall 1-5
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Positioned favourites
6/10 – Had run on the monitor earlier than
5/10 – Received final outing
3/10 – Profitable favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2021 Winner: Winter Energy (5/1)

Boonie received as much as win by 3/4 of a size at Nottingham final outing and is just up 4lbs for that right here. Khunan and the one CD winner within the area – Mission Dante – might be thought of too.

Nonetheless, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a promising sprinter on their fingers in KING OF BAVARIA @ 15/8 with William Hill, who was final seen operating properly in a Listed race at Navan. Prioer to that he gained each begins and despite the fact that the drop again to 5f won’t be completely excellent having stayed on properly the final day over 5 1/2f, he’s proven loads of pace to deal with it.

Of the remainder, a saver on LAST CRUSADER (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill too with jockey Danny Tudhope having gained two of the final 4 runnings of this. He ran properly at Group stage final season so this drop right into a Listed race will assist and will probably be fitter for a return run at HQ final month.

William Hill Particular Provide – Enchanced odds and Flash odds to spice up costs in your horse racing picks. Plus, Further Place races and one ‘Wager Increase’ to make use of each day on horse racing and Greatest Odds Assured costs. (Ts&C’s apply)

Observe: Odds are topic to alter

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York Horse Racing Instances and Race Card: Thurs twelfth Could 2022

• 1:50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
• 2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
• 3:00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
• 3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
• 4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
• 4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
• 5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 2m½f RTV

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