Issues of overtourism this 12 months have shaken a number of high-profile locations across the Mediterranean basin – lengthy the world’s most tourism-intense space. Protests towards city overcrowding with under-regulated short-term lodging fashions in Barcelona have made world headlines. In Spain, Italy, (two of the highest ten world rankers by worldwide vacationer arrivals) and different Mediterranean international locations that appeal to vacation makers by the mega-millions, administrations have been introducing legal guidelines and laws trying to regulate the so-called Airbnb market in addition to every day customer flows to tourism hotspots extra successfully.
On this tremendous summer season, nonetheless, overtourism and protests towards it, makes for one drawback that Lebanon doesn’t have. As a substitute, the summer season of ‘24 seems ripe for the report books as having witnessed probably the most twisted tourism sector fortunes and shakeups throughout a single key season. The explanation for the hospitality sector’s economically dangerous rollercoaster is the altering perceptions of battle threat and outbursts of panic fueled by belligerent posturing and up to date deeds of infamy.
Cross-border battle within the south and components of the Bekaa has been heating up and slowly increasing after considerably managed (by “guidelines of engagement”) however not nationally controllable altercations between Hezbollah and Israeli forces erupted in October of final 12 months. For a number of months, nonetheless, properly into the spring of 2024, native tourism appeared comparatively unfazed by this battle threat and waves of hasty journey warnings by, supposedly pleasant, worldwide powers.
Whereas the primary quarter of 2024 based on the Ministry of Tourism noticed a really important 13.52 % year-on-year decline to 237,633 customer arrivals, down from 274,787 in the identical interval of 2023, many leaders within the hospitality sector weren’t all too nervous. The scale of the drop was sharp however not catastrophic. Moreover, low resort customer numbers should not uncommon through the January to March and even April interval (in 2023 towards 2022 Jan-Apr resort occupancy charges, for instance) and might nonetheless be adopted by an excellent summer season.
Cynthia Flouty, the Director of Gross sales and Advertising and marketing on the Phoenicia Intercontinental Lodge in Beirut says that first-quarter information is just not essentially a robust indicator of annual tourism efficiency. “Whereas the Q1 numbers are regarding, they don’t inform the entire story,” she explains. “Lebanon’s tourism sector is closely seasonal, with the summer season months usually drawing a big majority of the annual guests. First-quarter figures, due to this fact, typically paint an incomplete image of the 12 months’s total efficiency.”
Nonetheless, Flouty acknowledges the apparent drawback. The shockwaves from the continuing battle in Gaza and the following battle between Israel and Hezbollah did finally attain the hospitality trade. “Many international locations urge their residents to not journey to Lebanon because of excessive dangers of armed battle,” she notes, referencing journey warnings issued by quite a few international embassies.
As summer season arrived with its swell of holiday makers, numbers rose to 411,320 in July 2024. Nonetheless, these numbers, mixed with the earlier months and based mostly on a dwindling outlook for the remainder of the 12 months, don’t look like on observe of matching 2023’s recorded whole of 4,109,962 guests. “This summer season in comparison with 2023 is just not good,” says Flouty. “All these numbers are Lebanese expatriates who’ve their houses and households right here, not foreigners and Arab vacationers.” And even Lebanese expats are much less inclined to come back in any respect, or select to curtail a lengthier keep because of each security issues and security-related flight cancellations.
The volatility of developments in Lebanon and the area have additionally created moments of panic linked to cancelled flights. For instance, throughout one notably tense week marked by tried ceasefire negotiations and an anticipated retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran after Israel’s assassination of Fouad Shukur in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, LBCI reported a lower in arriving passengers at Rafik Hariri Worldwide Airport from 12,964 on August 15, 2023, to eight,136 on the identical day in 2024.
“This summer season has been notably troublesome for us in comparison with 2023. We’ve seen a dramatic 50 % drop in reservations year-over-year. Historically, our clientele has been fairly various, drawing vacationers from Europe, Latin America, and Arab international locations like Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, and Iraq. Nonetheless, current geopolitical occasions have severely disrupted this sample,” says Flouty, including that the resort skilled a right away double blow to bookings as vacationers from Europe and North America “scrapped their journeys because of the state of affairs in Gaza, whereas a lot of our Arab friends had been pressured to cancel due to airline suspensions.”
Perils of an inhospitable political and safety local weather
The summer season of ’24 could be the wildest rodeo within the historical past of inbound tourism, however it’s by far not the primary time that the sector has suffered disruption. Constituting a significant sector in Lebanon’s providers economic system, tourism has skilled dramatic ups and downs over the previous twenty years, mirroring each the worldwide in addition to regional political local weather and the nation’s unstable economic system.
Within the early 2000s, tourism struggled to achieve traction following the civil battle years, underperforming in comparison with different financial sectors, contributing round 10 % to GDP. Nonetheless, the trade noticed a outstanding turnaround between 2005 and 2008, with vacationer arrivals rising from 1.14 million in 2005 to 1.33 million in 2008, a 16.7 % rise. Throughout this era, tourism outpaced total financial development, turning into a big contributor to the nation’s GDP, reaching as much as 20 % by 2008. The inflow of vacationers, notably from Gulf international locations, drove up costs in eating places, inns, and actual property, making tourism an inflation driver.
Broader financial challenges, nonetheless, emerged between 2009 and 2011. The sector then confronted a dramatic downturn with the onset of the Arab Spring in 2011, as regional instability deterred guests and disrupted journey patterns. Vacationer arrivals plummeted by 23.7 % in 2011 in comparison with the earlier 12 months, dropping from 2.17 million in 2010 to 1.66 million in 2011.
Since then, Lebanon’s tourism trade has struggled to regain its footing, buffeted by ongoing regional conflicts, home political instability, and world financial uncertainties. Regardless of occasional rebounds, such because the 11 % enhance in arrivals in 2017, reaching 1.86 million guests, the sector has struggled to regain its pre-crisis ranges. By 2019, nonetheless, tourism accounted for about 18 % of Lebanon’s GDP. [MOU1] This efficiency helped elevating Lebanon’s worldwide tourism income as % of GDP to 7.47 % over the whole 1995-2020 interval, representing a really respectable 13th rank of in an evaluation of the World Tourism Group.
This efficiency, nonetheless, was adopted by the crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which noticed inns lay off folks by the hundreds and eating places shut their doorways by the a whole lot. Regardless of the trough of 2020 and 21, the years 2022 and 23 noticed new initiatives in niches like guesthouses with personal-professional aptitude and enlargement of the Lebanese Airbnb market. Nonetheless, the information of the present 12 months recommend that the challenges for the tourism and hospitality sector will persist till the regional state of affairs takes a large flip to the higher.
Brief-term leases and long-term issues
The short-term trip rental market was a hospitality phase that had seen important development as much as this summer season. In accordance with some stories from the center of this 12 months, the variety of rental choices grew by 3,000, over 55 % of the then present provide, between Might 2022 and Might 2024.
Platforms like Airbnb have gained traction, providing guests extra various and sometimes extra inexpensive lodging choices in comparison with conventional inns. Samer Helou, an Airbnb host and property supervisor tells Government about his trajectory on the favored platform. “I began in summer season 2020 when my cousin gave me the chance to handle his condominium in Beirut on Airbnb. Now, I’ve my very own web page on Instagram and Fb, the place I promote a portfolio of 25 to 30 properties.” These embody residences in varied Lebanese places similar to Beirut, Jbeil, Batroun, Faqra, and Bikfaiya, in addition to worldwide choices like a personal villa in Greece and an condominium in Cyprus.
Nonetheless, he notes that the Airbnb mannequin, which has been beneath fireplace from locals of assorted cities around the globe, faces its personal distinctive cultural and sensible hurdles in Lebanon.
In accordance with Helou, “the Airbnb platform works higher overseas than in Lebanon.” He says that “Lebanese clients have a unique mindset. They like to speak straight with the proprietor or supervisor somewhat than reserving on-line.” This desire for private interplay extends to monetary issues as properly. Helou factors out that many native purchasers are reluctant to pay the extra 15 % visitor service cost imposed by Airbnb.
Furthermore, he highlights an important sensible impediment: “Not all Lebanese have contemporary greenback playing cards to pay on-line; many favor money transactions.” This lack of entry to worldwide cost strategies, a direct consequence of the nation’s ongoing financial disaster and banking restrictions, additional complicates using world reserving platforms like Airbnb within the Lebanese market.
Some Lebanese opportunists are searching for to capitalize on Lebanese friends’ desire for private interplay and money funds. Nagi El Husseini launched LBnB in June 2021, a platform particularly tailor-made to the Lebanese market. LBnB is just not licensed by the Ministry of Tourism however is registered as an organization and trademark on the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, Trade and Agriculture since 2001. The enterprise is personally funded by El Husseini. “Due to the monetary disaster, folks couldn’t use Airbnb anymore, so we created a Lebanese Airbnb the place every part is in Lebanese kilos.” In accordance with him, “We’re not competing with Airbnb. We’re complementing it and making an attempt to fill the gaps out there.”
El Husseini’s initiative aimed to advertise home journey and bypass international forex restrictions imposed by banks, bypassing stringent international forex controls by permitting customers to guide lodging and experiences utilizing the quickly depreciating Lebanese Pound. In its preliminary two months, LBnB garnered important consideration, attracting 10,000 customers. Nonetheless, technical shortcomings hindered LBnB’s capability to deal with the demand. “We rushed the module, and it couldn’t deal with the huge inflow of customers,” El Husseini tells Government. Consequently, the platform was pressured to close down by the tip of summer season 2022.
Misfortunes by no means come singly
As Lebanon’s financial disaster deepened and the nation transitioned to a dollarized economic system, the preliminary impetus for LBnB waned. “The shift to a dollarized economic system modified the sport,” says El Husseini. “The unique drawback we had been making an attempt to unravel was not as urgent, everyone seems to be paying in greenback with none drawback so we realized we would have liked to evolve LBnB’s idea.” LBnB is now poised for a world relaunch in 2025, providing a wider vary of providers to compete on a global stage.
Apart from the monetary calamities and financial woes that had been turned by the ever-enterprising Lebanese minds into revolutionary enterprise ideas, the short-term rental market has not been impervious to the conflict-induced drop in customer confidence. As one instance, Helou recounts that “a Lebanese woman residing overseas had deliberate to lease a furnished Beirut condominium from January 2024 until January 2025 for a mission she needed to work on in Lebanon. However on the third week of October, after the battle in Gaza began, she despatched me an electronic mail canceling her reservation.”
Journey cancellations and hesitation amongst potential guests, notably from overseas, worsened in July and August following embassy warnings. The affect extends past Beirut to different in style vacationer areas. Maguy Ghorayeb, proprietor of Beit El Deir, a personal villa in Deir el Qamar within the Chouf area, notes that “in October, there weren’t many bookings as a result of folks had been afraid to come back from the Damour highway because of what’s taking place within the South. They most well-liked renting locations within the Keserwan district as an alternative.”
The struggling of MICE
Whereas Airbnb operators glean profitability from excessive sensitivity to cost-benefit ratios, the affect of the newest disaster available on the market for conferences, incentives, conferences, and occasions (MICE) is extreme. The inns catering to enterprise vacationers, face crippling challenges.
“For Phoenicia Lodge, our core market is enterprise, not tourism. There are solely three or 4 months for tourism, and the opposite eight to 9 months are for enterprise. This 12 months, we didn’t have conferences, congresses, or exhibitions. They had been all moved to different international locations because of instability in Lebanon,” Flouty explains. “Rebuilding MICE tourism would require not solely an enchancment within the regional safety state of affairs but additionally a concerted effort to rebrand Lebanon as a secure and engaging vacation spot for enterprise occasions.”
On the entire, the troubles of 2024 seem set to write down forth a demographic pattern whereby nearly all of guests to the nation are Lebanese expats. For the previous three a long time, Lebanese expatriates have constantly fashioned a good portion of inbound vacationers and there’s no finish in sight to the diaspora’s love and affection for Lebanon. Many expatriates truly look like actively rising connections with their homeland, repeatedly visiting to nurture familial ties and cultural roots regardless of the continuing difficulties that deter worldwide and regional guests.
Flouty notes that “Whereas they [visiting Lebanese from abroad] do contribute to the native economic system, they don’t essentially guide resort rooms. Many stick with household or in their very own properties, straight impacting our occupancy charges.” It appears then that the attachment to household, somewhat than the expansion within the variety of short-term trip leases, is a serious shaper of customer conduct. Furthermore, no matter their disruptive affect on financial fashions and the inflationary pressures that accompany all tourism, the very important direct diaspora inputs to nationwide GDP appear to be a few of the most bankable and dependable variables for the hospitality sector in coming years.
Established patterns and rising traits within the sector
Whereas inns could endure, revolutionary visitor homes and particular person operators, particularly these situated away from conflict-threatened areas, are benefitting a clientele base composed primarily of each Lebanese expats and locals. “Whereas we’ve positively seen a drop in worldwide bookings, we’ve seen an uptick in native Lebanese searching for staycations,” Ghorayeb says. “Our villa is even internet hosting households from Beirut in search of a brief escape from the town.”
Since round 2020, a brand new pattern has emerged in Lebanon’s actual property market, spanning from the bustling streets of Beirut to serene mountain cities. Property house owners are capitalizing on the nation’s vibrant social scene and the rising demand for distinctive occasion areas by repurposing their houses, terraces, and personal swimming pools to host weddings, engagements, and birthday celebrations.
“Over the previous two years, we’ve witnessed a 50 % surge in requests for distinctive, intimate venues,” Helou stories. “Curiously, the demand is nearly equally cut up between city and rural settings. In Beirut, purchasers are drawn to the city stylish aesthetic, whereas mountain places attraction to these searching for the attract of nature and conventional Lebanese structure.”
Ghorayeb has sought to make use of her villa to capitalize on this new demand. “Final summer season, we might accommodate small weddings of as much as 120 friends. With our current expansions, together with a brand new pool and extra house, we had been ready this summer season to host occasions for as much as 180 folks,” she says. “We’re additionally exploring the potential of internet hosting live shows,” she provides, “as a part of our technique to place the villa as a premier leisure vacation spot within the area.”
Because the panorama of Lebanese hospitality choices is turning into crowded with new entrants, new areas for collaboration are opening up. Lodges are more and more recognizing the potential advantages of partnering with on-line platforms, inflicting El Husseini to take be aware. “Our platform may have a bit for inns who’re to be on such platforms the place they obtain extra bookings,” he says.
Though the potential for these mutually useful partnerships does exist in an trade that continues to adapt to altering market dynamics, Flouty sees limitations associated to the necessity of Lebanon’s hospitality trade of adopting world model requirements in addition to native market calls for. She notes that native and non-chain inns are the most certainly to have interaction with home platforms. “As a global chain resort, Phoenicia Intercontinental operates beneath particular pointers and reserving techniques,” she says.
Progressive responses within the F&B Sector
President of the Syndicate of Eating places, Cafes, Evening-clubs, and Pastries, Tony Ramy, talking on the HORECA Expo in Beirut—a networking platform for professionals within the hospitality trade—in April 2024, introduced that roughly 330 new eating places opened in Lebanon throughout 2023.
Odette’s Mexican Taqueria in Achrafieh, based by Ziad Ghorly, is an instance of how sure venues are flourishing regardless of the nation’s volatility. “I opened my restaurant in June 2023 and though there’s a lack of the federal government infrastructure, it’s a private initiative,” Ghorly says. “On this nation we should take dangers and never watch for the right time as a result of there is no such thing as a excellent time. I see F&B as one of many sectors which can be working in Lebanon. Lebanese folks like to exit to eat and check out new issues; for them, it is a method of stress reduction.”
Since opening, Ghorly has already expanded to incorporate an higher ground in 2024. He notes a big shift in his buyer base over the previous 12 months: “Final summer season was higher than this summer season, the place we acquired international clients who used to lease Airbnbs in Achrafieh or close by. However this summer season there have been solely native Lebanese or expatriates.”
Regardless of this modification, enterprise stays regular. “It was a busy summer season for our restaurant, we’re totally booked every day,” Ghorly stories. Lebanon is thought for its capability to carry contradictions: even when battle dominates the headlines, the ambiance in Beirut can really feel comparatively regular, if interspersed sporadically by the disturbing sounds of sonic booms from Israeli warplanes above. “The state of affairs within the south didn’t have an effect on the circulation of consumers,” Ghorly says, including, “When Israel hit Dahieh, two tables canceled their reservation, however the day after I used to be totally booked. That is an instance that Lebanese folks wish to dwell it doesn’t matter what.”
Whereas worldwide guests herald much-needed international forex, the rise in home tourism and artistic repurposing of areas for occasions showcase the trade’s adaptability and potential for development. The tourism sector, which has lengthy catered to a mixture of worldwide and diaspora guests, should now adapt its methods to deal with the evolving wants and expectations of this loyal however distinct buyer base.
Trying forward, the sector’s restoration will hinge on its capability to stability short-term diversifications with long-term planning. And, in fact, one of the best ways to rebuild Lebanon’s hospitable picture is by guaranteeing that the nation is, certainly, welcoming and safe—an onus that falls on actors properly past the scope of the tourism and hospitality trade.
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