Market Outlook #186 (eighth August 2022)
Good day, and welcome to the 186th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I can be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Tron, Algorand, THORChain, Enjin and Ispolink.
As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent Monday’s Outlook, do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $24,086
Market Cap: $460.433bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that final week was an inside week, with a really tight weekly vary that culminated in worth marginally shut above the 200wMA as soon as once more. Given the within week, we’ve got the potential for inside week failure right here, and this morning we’ve got seen worth take out final week’s excessive at $23,650 and now make a transfer in the direction of the prior weekly excessive at $24,545. If we see rejection early this week from up inside this vary – significantly if we take out $24,545 – and worth begins to maneuver again under final week’s excessive, we could also be organising for that inside week failure, the place we might then anticipate worth to take out the underside of the weekly vary subsequently and thus transfer again under the 200wMA in the direction of prior resistance turned assist at $21.9k.
Dropping into the each day, if we do see that SFP of $24.5k result in a breakdown and eventual shut under $22.5k, we then have a break in market construction following rejection from a key stage and a liquidity sweep, which isn’t promising for bulls short-term. In that situation, it’s possible momentum indicators will break down, after which it’s all on that sturdy $21.9k assist to stay assist – break again under that and I feel we return to the $19k space to retest the underside of the vary as assist. If, nevertheless, we don’t reject up close to $24.5k and as a substitute begin to shut and consolidate above it, a weekly shut above the extent invalidates inside week failure and I’m then searching for longs subsequent week to proceed to experience the rally greater and fill the hole again into $28.7k.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $1770 (0.0735 BTC)
Market Cap: $215.773bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that we proceed to consolidate proper round that all-important prior assist turned resistance stage at $1728, with final week closing slightly below the extent at $1700 and portray an inside week, identical to on BTC. Once more, this units us up for a attainable prime for the rally in an important space or for a large reclaim and doubtlessly for one more 25-30% rally into $2300. For the bears, what you’ll wish to see is worth to take out the excessive at $1802 after which reject and shut the week again under $1728, opening up the chance of at the least the $1560 swing-low getting taken out. Transferring into the each day, we are able to see that if that low will get taken out following a sweep of $1800, we’ve got a reversion to bearish market construction, and if that happens with momentum indicators pointing in the direction of exhaustion, I feel we’re again in promote the rally mode, at the least again into the $1290 space to retest the breakout stage as assist. If we are able to shut above $1800 and consolidate and decrease timeframe momentum continues to level greater, I can be searching for dips to lengthy over the following couple of weeks with a main goal of the 200dMA at $2275.
Dropping into ETH/BTC, we are able to see that worth has closed above the weekly trendline resistance for a second consecutive week having retested the mid-range as assist. That is promising, and I’d anticipate continuation greater from right here in the direction of the 2022 open and the high quality round 0.08-0.082 to comply with, so long as we now maintain above 0.069. If we break again under that stage – significantly if we are able to’t take out 0.076 and print a higher-high – I feel we’re going to unwind most of this rally again in the direction of vary assist. If we have a look at the each day, there’s some exhaustion showing on momentum indicators as ETH/BTC pushes up right here however nothing but in price-action to recommend a prime – it is just if worth begins to interrupt down from right here and return to bearish market construction can we begin searching for ETH weak spot shifting ahead, so don’t get trapped into shorting ETH early.
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.54 (2256 satoshis)
Market Cap: $18.319bn
Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth continues to consolidate under the 200wMA, with the pair range-bound between assist at $0.42 and resistance round $0.56 for a number of weeks now. Till that vary breaks to both facet, that is simply chop and isn’t one thing I’m all in favour of. If we break and shut above the 200wMA, there’s a potential lengthy play into the $0.68-$0.75 vary assuming the setup presents itself a danger/rewards is beneficial, however to be trustworthy it doesn’t appear like that’s one thing I’ll wish to play. As a substitute, if we do break greater, I’d somewhat search for exhaustion as worth comes into $0.68 after which search for shorts following a reversion to each day bearish construction. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see that worth would even be contesting the 200dMA up in that vary, in addition to the trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, so loads of confluence for a prime in that space if we do break greater from right here. If, nevertheless, $0.56 continues to cap worth and we break $0.42 and shut under it, I’m completely searching for extra draw back into $0.27 as the following stage, with $0.20 the following main assist under that.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we are able to see from the weekly that worth has been consolidating above assist at 1975 satoshis for just a few weeks now however continues to be capped by reclaimed resistance at 2530 and under the decrease excessive at 2750 satoshis. Very like the greenback pair, we’re range-bound right here with no indication as to path: if we see worth shut the weekly again under 1975, I’d anticipate to see the 200wMA at 1700 satoshis retested as assist on the very least; conversely, break and shut above 2530 and I feel we take out the decrease excessive, following which the response turns into key, as a result of a weekly shut at the next excessive turns construction bullish off a key stage, whereas an SFP of that prime and subsequent breakdown opens up extra brief alternatives for a return to that 200wMA. Nothing clear for now.
Tron:
TRX/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
TRX/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.071 (293 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.539bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at TRX/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth has been chopping round above the 2020 highs as assist at $0.054, with the previous few weeks of price-action seeing the pair chop greater in tight weekly ranges into reclaimed resistance at $0.071. We are actually sitting proper up in opposition to that resistance with trendline resistance additionally looming overhead. If the pair breaks greater following this era of tight consolidation and might shut the weekly above the trendline, I can be searching for longs again in the direction of the following resistance stage at $0.089. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see that that is actually very uneven round present ranges and looking out forward it seem like forming a descending triangle into that 2020 excessive, which is bearish. If that $0.054 stage have been to interrupt once more and worth held under it, I feel we might comfortably search for shorts all the way in which again in the direction of $0.027 as the following main assist stage.
Turning to TRX/BTC, we are able to see that worth is consolidating above the 200wMA and above prior resistance turned assist round 260 satoshis, which is promising for bulls. If we dip from right here into that 260 stage, there’s a case to be made for a protracted play from there again in the direction of 350 satoshis, as invalidation is extraordinarily tight on a detailed again under the 200wMA at 245, so danger reward for me could be too beneficial to not take that. If, nevertheless, we shut again under the 200wMA, in fact that place is exited however the pair additionally seems to be prefer it has deviation key resistance and a key MA after which damaged down, and I’d anticipate most of this rally to be worn out again in the direction of the bottom of the consolidation round 150-175 satoshis.
Algorand:
ALGO/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ALGO/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.36 (1526 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.553bn
Ideas: Trying firstly at ALGO/USD, we are able to see that worth is simply breaking above prior assist turned resistance at $0.34 and is seeking to try a trendline breakout from the 2021 excessive. If we are able to shut this week above $0.38, it seems to be to me just like the pair is prepared for some reduction again into main reclaimed resistance at $0.48, and I can be searching for any alternative to get lengthy early subsequent week in that occasion. If nevertheless we worth wick above $0.38 after which shut this week again under $0.34, it seems to be just like the pair continues to be in consolidation mode and we might look to purchase vary assist at $0.29 with a really tight cease on a detailed under that stage, or simply look forward to a clear breakout to focus on that $0.50 area.
Turning to ALGO/BTC, we’ve got reclaimed assist at 1350 satoshis however the pair is struggling round prior assist at 1560 and stays capped by trendline resistance from the all-time excessive. Ideally, bulls now wish to see 1350 proceed to carry as the next low, and worth curl greater to take out trendline resistances and shut above it. In that occasion, we are able to anticipate the prior decrease excessive and reclaimed resistance at 2200 satoshis to be retested. If, nevertheless, the trendline holds agency and worth loses 1350, I feel we take out the swing-low at 1175 into assist at 1080 satoshis, which is the final actual assist above the all-time excessive.
THORChain:
RUNE/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
RUNE/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $2.96 (12,300 satoshis)
Market Cap: $980.345mn
Ideas: Starting with RUNE/USD, we are able to see that worth bounced above prior resistance turned assist at $1.22 after at 93% drawdown from the all-time excessive and has been chopping greater for a few months on declining quantity, with the previous few weeks of price-action seeing rejection from main assist turned resistance at $2.98. This can be a pivotal stage and one the place we might anticipate the rally to be capped if the downtrend persists, the place if we now begin to see decrease timeframe breakdowns from this stage we are able to start to scale into shorts concentrating on $1.22. If, nevertheless, there’s sufficient juice to reclaim this stage, the following resistance stage is at $4.40 and so we might look to purchase $3 as reclaimed assist and exit on a breakdown again under the extent. Trying on the each day, we are able to see that trendline assist can be holding agency for now and that there aren’t any indicators of exhaustion simply but, so if we do break and maintain above $3, we might use the newest swing-low as invalidation for longs. Additional, if we see worth fake-out above the extent after which breakdown under trendline assist, I’d look to brief $2.98 or as near it as attainable and search for the entire rally to be erased.
Turning to RUNE/BTC, we are able to see that worth is consolidating above assist at 8800 satoshis however under resistance a 12800 satoshis, the place if that latter stage provides manner right here there’s little or no resistance all the way in which up into 19k satoshis, and thus could be the kind of vary we wish to play to the upside. If 12.8k satoshis continues to cap worth, and the greenback pair begins to interrupt trendline assist and revert market construction, I feel the BTC pair begins one other leg decrease into the following stage of assist at 6200 satoshis.
Enjin:
ENJ/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ENJ/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.717 (2974 satoshis)
Market Cap: $643.15mn
Ideas: Starting with ENJ/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is pushing up in opposition to the 200wMA from under as resistance, in addition to trendline resistance and prior assist at $0.72, offering an excessive amount of confluence on this space for the reduction rally to subside and for worth to show decrease. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, the momentum indicators aren’t but pointing to exhaustion, however for contemporary shorts what I want to see is a spike above $0.72 to be adopted by a break again under $0.70, trapping breakout longs. This may open up draw back again into at the least $0.55 to retest that space as assist, the place if that stage fails the $0.45 assist turn into important for the pair to not start one other leg decrease all the way in which into $0.26. If we begin to consolidate between $0.45-0.55 once more for a chronic time frame, that’s the kind of PA I wish to be getting concerned in. Alternatively, if we break and shut above trendline resistance right here, I’d look to purchase $0.72 as assist with a goal of $0.93 adopted by the 200dMA at $1.11.
Turning to ENJ/BTC, in contrast to the greenback pair we’ve got deviated under the 200wMA and virtually instantly reclaimed it, in addition to prior resistance turned assist at 2400 satoshis. Since, we’ve got retested that space as assist and now damaged greater as soon as once more, closing above trendline resistance and rallying in the direction of reclaimed resistance at 3370. That is the place I’d anticipate the rally to begin to diminish, which aligns with our expectations on the greenback pair, however given the construction right here, I’d be very eager to begin shopping for ENJ if we then return again to the 200wMA and 2400 satoshi assist base as a re-accumulation zone, with invalidation on a detailed again under the 200wMA, or in the event you’re searching for a wider cease then on a break under 1700, seeking to maintain that spot place for the following cycle. If this space does fail as a cyclical base, the following space of curiosity under is all the way in which down close to 950 satoshis.
Ispolink:
ISP/USD
Day by day:
ISP/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.00098 (4 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.718mn
Ideas: I want to preface this by mentioning that Ispolink is a subscriber request and so I’m not sure on its fundamentals, however it is extremely a lot a microcap and so if you’re all in favour of it, pay attention to low liquidity, significantly in present circumstances.
Given it has solely been buying and selling for slightly over a yr, each pairs look equivalent and so I’ll go for its Greenback pair for evaluation.
Taking a look at ISP/USD, we are able to see that it has performed out what seems to be like a standard altcoin market cycle, retracing virtually its whole bull cycle off the all-time low, discovering assist at $0.0007 in June and persevering with to now maintain above that stage because the final stage of assist above that all-time low at $0.00055. If that stage continues to carry, I’d wish to see the pair proceed this uneven consolidation above it for a number of extra weeks while giant holders are seen to be accumulating, after which look to purchase as near $0.0007 as attainable, with the all-time low as my invalidation. This seems to be like it’s getting into the despair stage of the market cycle, which might final many months for microcaps, so I wouldn’t be speeding in. Construction could be very good right here although, so if the basics do rise up, that is one to maintain in your watchlist.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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