Market Outlook #249 (eleventh December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 249th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I can be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Optimism, Alchemix, Altered State Machine and Raini.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that final week closed at contemporary yearly highs, by way of $42k resistance on rising quantity. Worth closed out the week simply shy of $44k and early buying and selling this week has seen worth dump again under $42k however maintain above $39.7k as help, pushing up from that space again in the direction of $42k, the place it’s at the moment sat. this, there may be little or no to counsel any slowdown, notably after final week’s shut by way of that confluence of resistance. While we proceed to carry above $39.7k this week, I feel we see this consolidation round $42k result in additional enlargement subsequent week into the 61.8% retracement degree and prior resistance at $48k, the place it’s probably we begin to type an area prime. If, nonetheless, this sell-off continues later this week and we shut the week again under $39.7k, it’s probably the native prime has fashioned right here and we will search for additional draw back subsequent week into $36k to retest all that prior resistance as help; under that degree, we filter out all of the untapped lows into $33k. That’s the roadmap from each views going into 2024.
Turning to the day by day, we will see that worth bought off sharply yesterday in one thing of a mini liquidation cascade, taking it from up close to $44k down into $40k, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating proper under that $42k degree. At current, $42k is day by day resistance, so reclaiming that over the following day or two would counsel an extra restoration of that cascade and sure a march to contemporary highs from there; if, nonetheless, $42k continues to behave as resistance this week, we might have additional to fall but earlier than discovering a backside, with $39.6k but untested – a second leg decrease into that degree adopted by a $42k reclaim could be a pleasant backside formation to search for longs. As talked about above, till we shut the upper timeframes under $39.6k, I don’t assume this uptrend is completed fairly but. And above $45k there may be solely air into $48k.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see that worth closed firmly by way of resistance at $2170 final week, pushing as excessive as $2400 earlier than closing at $2350 on good quantity. We have been inches shy of that $2425 degree however worth has rejected that resistance early this week, clearing out the prior weekly low into prior resistance turned help at $2170 and bouncing off it. If we will now maintain above that degree, that appears very very similar to somewhat flush earlier than enlargement past the 38.2% fib and reclaimed resistance at $2426, with $2650 the following degree of curiosity above that. If we shut the weekly again under $2170, I’d count on $1850 to be retested earlier than a backside is discovered, the place there may be loads of confluence. Turning to the day by day, we will see how the pair depraved proper into that prior resistance cluster earlier than bouncing laborious yesterday, so holding above $2137 over the following day or two is paramount for this construction to stay legitimate as resistance turned help; begin closing again inside these resistances and the image appears to be like much less fairly, with a load of untapped lows seen earlier than that $1850 degree comes into view, the place the 200dMA can be sat…
Trying now at ETH/BTC, final week retested 0.051 as help and held as soon as once more, bouncing off that to shut at 0.0537, however remaining firmly capped by 0.0551 as resistance. As talked about final week, the image may be very clear right here: under 0.051 we take out 0.04877 earlier than discovering a backside; and above 0.0551 and the 200wMA we development in the direction of trendline resistance. No have to make it any extra difficult than that. An extended-term reversal solely turns into excessive likelihood as soon as we flip that multi-year trendline into help, in my view.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
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MATIC/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we will see on the weekly that worth bounced off that 200wMA final week and rallied again into help turned resistance at $0.92, closing proper at that confluence of resistance. Early this week, the pair has bought off, holding above the 200wMA and now sat in no man’s land inside the prior weekly vary. Till we get a weekly shut above $0.93, we will’t make certain of additional enlargement / development continuation, however given the construction right here and the response off the 200wMA I’m leaning in the direction of a breakout quickly. If we drop into the day by day, we will see that worth additionally held above the 200dMA, front-running it as help earlier than reversing. So long as we now type a higher-low above $0.77, I’d count on the following crack at $0.93 to present means and for the pair to then develop in the direction of $1.30 within the coming weeks.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that worth rallied off of help final week, wicking in the direction of 1717 satoshis earlier than closing the week at highs round 2100. This can be a promising signal for bulls, and if we will now maintain above 2000 I’d count on the vary to get crammed in in the direction of the 200wMA and prior help turned resistance at 2450. Dropping into the day by day, we will see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than retracing into that help cluster and now turning day by day construction bullish on the newest bounce. Acceptance above 2100 on the day by day right here is essential, as that might make it very probably we break past the 200dMA once more, and often the second breakout from a bottoming formation just isn’t a fakeout, so we might count on to see 2450 satoshis adopted by 2950.
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
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Every day:
UNI/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we will see on the weekly that worth poked above $6.30 final week, pushing in the direction of $7.50 earlier than closing again close to $6.60. We positively have bullish construction right here however UNI stays inside a 580-day vary, having spent a lot of 2023 chopping round above vary help and under $7.50. From right here, I want to see this space round $6.30 maintain as help and worth to shut the weekly by way of $7.50 later in December; that for me is the start of the following cycle for UNI, given how that degree has capped the pair since September 2022. Above it, I feel we take out the $9.90 excessive and proceed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $13.87 earlier than discovering any significant resistance. Trying on the day by day, on this timeframe it’s key we maintain above $5.65 as reclaimed help; a pleasant wick under $5.84 into that degree adopted by a reclaim of $6.30 later within the week could be a very nice sign for additional upside, for my part.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we will see that worth is now consolidating above multi-year help at 14k satoshis after deviating under it. While this degree continues to carry as reclaimed help, I feel it appears to be like very very similar to the underside has fashioned right here and we will count on a transfer by way of 17.5k satoshis to return sooner relatively than later; above that, weekly construction turns bullish and I’d expect outperformance for UNI all the best way again in the direction of that 26.7k satoshis space. Dropping into the day by day we will see how the 200dMA continues to cap the rallies lately, so a transfer by way of 17.5k would additionally flip that into help, offering confluence for additional upside.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Every day:
OP/BTC
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Ideas: As Optimism has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.
OP/USD, we will see that worth may be very a lot in an uptrend, having marked out a backside in June and a macro higher-low in October, then breaking by way of trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, flipping the 200dMA as help and persevering with to tear greater. Final week noticed the pair push by way of the $2 space as resistance into reclaimed resistance proper round $2.40, under which it at the moment sits. That is arguably a very powerful resistance on the chart at current, with it being each the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market and the double prime from 2022. Settle for above this degree as reclaimed help and I feel we get a parabolic transfer in the direction of all-time highs from there, with a excessive likelihood that this second bull cycle takes OP into worth discovery past $3.30 given the market situations.
Alchemix:
ALCX/USD
Every day:
ALCX/BTC
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Ideas: As each pairs look equivalent right here for ALCX, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
ALCX/USD, we will see that worth had fashioned a long-term backside at $16.42, earlier than breaching it to type a double backside at $13.46 in 2023. Subsequently, in August 2023, we deviated under that double backside, fashioned a contemporary all-time low at $10.27 after which consolidated for just a few months between that low and prior help turned resistance, additionally discovering resistance on the 200dMA, above which the pair had not discovered help (past a short fakeout) for a number of years. Worth has since emerged from this vary, reclaiming each $13.46 and $16.42 as help, turning day by day construction bullish. Concurrently, we now have turned the 200dMA into help, above which a higher-low has fashioned. Worth rallied from that low into $26.44 final week earlier than rejecting and now retracing again into prior resistance at $18.70. So long as the pair can proceed to carry above $16.42 right here, I’d count on to see continuation greater, as that is very a lot a classical cyclical backside at current and any transfer above $26 will probably be the start of the following bull cycle for ALCX. For targets on spot baggage, $73 could be the primary space of curiosity after the hole fill, adopted by $178 after which $478 as main resistance.
Altered State Machine:
ASTO/USD
Every day:
ASTO/BTC
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Ideas: Once more, as ASTO has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
ASTO/USD, we will see that worth has concluded its first bear cycle, shedding 97% of its worth from the all-time highs at $0.40. Worth backside in October at $0.014 earlier than starting a pointy rally since, reclaiming a number of ranges of help and shutting firmly above the 200dMA, which acted as help in November. Worth is now sandwiched between help turned resistance at $0.052 and reclaimed help at $0.037, sitting marginally above the 360dMA at current. So long as the $0.037 space holds as help, I feel the construction right here is okay regardless of the divergence in momentum; shut under that and we probably retraced again in the direction of $0.029 to seek out help once more, with $0.024 because the golden alternative for a spot entry if that comes. If this construction does maintain and worth merely consolidates inside this vary, I’d look to purchase spot on acceptance above $0.052, as there may be mainly no resistance above that for an additional 100% rally, and no resistance past $0.13 all the best way into $0.25. I feel when this one rips, it’ll actually rip, with contemporary highs past $0.40 probably in 2024.
RAINI:
RAINI/USD
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Every day:
RAINI/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we will see that worth closed final week at contemporary yearly highs for 2023, marginally by way of resistance at $0.05. We’ve since continued to push greater early this week with $0.05 appearing as help. If that degree can proceed to behave as help this week, there isn’t a actual resistance on the weekly timeframe again into the 38.2% fib of the bear market and reclaimed resistance at $0.08-$0.088. That may be the place I’d count on an area prime to start to type, from which we might get the primary main correction for Raini of this new cycle. If, nonetheless, we deviate above $0.05 this week after which shut again under it, it’s probably the native prime is in right here and I’d search for a higher-low to type above $0.035 earlier than continuation into that vary above. Finally, that is one I’m trying to maintain for a lot of extra months but, with expectations of contemporary all-time highs past $0.20 in 2024, notably given the Beam narrative.
Turning to RAINI/BTC, we will see that worth is at the moment sat proper round that 38.2% fib however there isn’t an historic degree right here for confluence. I’d count on 156 satoshis to be retested as resistance if we will maintain above 121 right here. Past that degree, contemporary yearly highs are on the best way by way of 183, with 230 satoshis the extent to observe for past that. Once more, in the event you’re in a spot place like me, I’m now sitting on my arms till we hit 280 satoshis as main resistance, promoting a partial after which letting the remaining trip for contemporary all-time highs.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
