Softened demand for PCs and smartphones coupled with NAND reminiscence bits oversupply has despatched costs of 3D NAND reminiscence right into a dive in current quarters. In This autumn, international NAND flash income dropped staggering 45% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over quarter, based on current information by TrendForce. And whereas that dive seems to be leveling off some – TrendForces’ analysts forecast that NAND costs declined extra modestly in Q1 – it is nonetheless bringing NAND to its lowest per-bit prices ever. All of which has meant that SSD costs for finish customers have been taking a much-welcomed dive, because the core prices of constructing SSDs proceed to say no.
NAND reminiscence producers earned $10.287 billion in This autumn 2022, down 25% sequentially and 45% year-over-year. Common promoting worth (ASP) of NAND reminiscence decreased by 22.8% sequentially as makers of flash tried to eliminate reminiscence gadgets they’d produced. In the meantime, PC, smartphone, and server distributors had been hesitant to buy extra 3D NAND than completely obligatory, as they had been uncertain about future demand and feared overstocking.
Samsung Stays on Prime of NAND Market
Samsung retained its high spot with $3.48 billion in NAND gross sales (down 19.1% QoQ and 43% YoY) and a 33.8% market share. Regardless of declining ASP, Samsung has managed to extend its whole bit shipments by leveraging its value benefit and specializing in high-capacity merchandise. Moreover, the corporate has not introduced any plans to scale back its 3D NAND bit output to date, in contrast to all of its trade friends, together with South Korea-based SK Group.
Kioxia earned $1.968 billion on 3D NAND (down 30.5% QoQ and 44.5% YoY) and commanded 19.1% of the market. Kioxia sells each uncooked NAND reminiscence in addition to datacenter SSDs, so tender demand from PC and smartphone clients and in addition to stock changes by server makers spiraled the corporate’s income.
NAND gross sales of SK Group (which owns SK Hynix and controls Solidigm) reached $1.7557 billion in This autumn (down 30.9% QoQ and 51.4% YoY) and the corporate was the third largest provider of flash reminiscence with a 17.1% share. TrendForce says that whereas SK Group’s NAND earnings declined, the corporate elevated its flash reminiscence bit shipments by 6.7% QoQ as shipments of 3D NAND for client electronics in addition to gross sales of enterprise SSDs elevated.
Western Digital, which managed 16.1% of NAND gross sales within the fourth quarter, offered $1.657 billion price of NAND reminiscence, a slight 3.8% drop sequentially and a 46.8% decrease than in the identical quarter a yr in the past. However these slight drops of income had been a results of an enormous 20% improve in bit shipments, one thing that clearly had an impact of the corporate’s ASP in This autumn.
Micron’s gross sales of NAND flash totaled $1.103 billion in This autumn 2022 (down 34.7% QoQ and 41.3% YoY) and managed 10.7% of the market. Micron was the primary firm to announce plans to chop its 3D NAND bits output late final yr. Nonetheless, Micron initiated shipments of its consumer SSDs based mostly on 232-layer 3D NAND in This autumn 2022, based on TrendForce. Moreover, as Micron ramps up manufacturing of enterprise-grade drives that includes 176-layer 3D QLC NAND, TrendForce initiatives that Micron’s bit shipments will regularly enhance in 2023, leading to a gradual improve in income quarter by quarter.
SSD Costs Attain New Lows
Samsung not solely controls a 3rd of NAND flash reminiscence market, but it surely additionally sells among the trade’s hottest SSDs. Seven out of 10 bestselling SSDs at Amazon carry Samsung’s badge. In the meantime retail costs of standard SSDs from of all distributors usually adopted traits set by costs of 3D NAND flash. To get a greater take a look at the change in SSD costs over the previous few months, we pulled some information from Amazon tracker CamelCamelCamel to see the place costs stand for the reason that begin of This autumn’22:
- Worth of Samsung’s mainstream 970 Evo Plus SSD 2 TB fell from $210 in October to $160 in December, 2022. The product might be bought for $130 at the moment, for a 38% drop.
- Samsung’s 870 Evo 1TB drive used to value $105 in October and dropped to $90 in December. Its worth collapsed significantly extra drastically in Q1 and it’s offered for $65 at the moment, for a 28% drop.
- Apparently, pricing of Micron’s Essential MX500 1TB SSD behaved barely in a different way in This autumn: the drive used to value $85 in September, then quickly dropped to $75 in October, returned to $85 in November solely to break down to round $75 in December. At press time the product value $60, for a 29% drop.
- Western Digital’s higher-end WD_Black SN770 1 TB SSD was much less inclined to cost decline in This autumn: it was offered for $100 all through the entire quarter dropping to $80 for a couple of days. But, proper now this drive is offered for $60, a 40% drop.
- Pricing of one other standard high-end PCIe Gen4 x4 SSD — the Samsung 980 Professional 2TB — was fairly unstable in This autumn various from $240 in September to $180 in December. At present, this drive might be acquired for $160, which is a rise from $160 earlier this month, and a 33% drop general.
- In the meantime SK hynix’s P31 2TB, a PCIe Gen3 SSD standard with laptop computer customers, has bobbled up and down, owing to SK hynix’s tendency to place the drive on sale for brief durations of time. It began at $160 in late September, rising as excessive as $208, earlier than lastly coming right down to $120 in current weeks, a 25% worth drop.
- And SK hynix’s P41 2TB, their more moderen PCIe Gen4 SSD, has been much more steady in worth. The beforehand $260 drive is at the moment promoting for $245, a drop of all of 6%. It has offered for much much less — $170 — when it’s on sale.
NAND Costs to Drop Additional
TrendForce believes that NAND flash income and ASP decreased additional in Q1 2022 resulting from historically low demand throughout this era. As introduced, Kioxia, Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix are anticipated to proceed decreasing their manufacturing within the first quarter to deal with their overstock state of affairs, although it’s unclear how this can have an effect on their bit shipments, as the businesses have a tendency to supply reminiscence utilizing their newest manufacturing nodes. But, decrease output will possible cut back ASPs by 10% – 15% QoQ within the first quarter, based on TrendForce.
Consequently, TrendForce forecasts an 8.1% decline in NAND flash income in Q1 2023. In the meantime, a fast test of retail SSD costs at Amazon display that they’re getting cheaper, making the present NAND worth bust a win for PC elements patrons.
Sources: TrendForce, Amazon, CamelCamelCamel
