This can be a long-winded method of claiming the market isn’t “unsuitable.” It merely displays all out there data. When you accurately disagree with the market, you will be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have alternate options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them below a regulatory settlement. When you imagine the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is unsuitable, you may merely guess in opposition to her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Regardless that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win in your guess to repay – when you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’ll be shopping for one thing value 55 cents for 40 cents right this moment. Even when you may not be keen to try this, different market members will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (doubtlessly misinformed) whale, you’ll anticipate the percentages to say no as merchants incorporate this new data. Until in fact, the prediction markets are typically dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
