It feels like a Bond film plot machine: a nuclear-tipped torpedo is on its approach to destroy New York Metropolis with a radioactive tsunami.
Now, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BOAS) – the group behind the notorious Doomsday Clock – warns that Russia’s rogue President Vladimir Putin desires 30 of them.
And whereas the idea sounds far-fetched, some army analysts consider the concept has potential.
Standard intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) could be tracked from the second they’re launched. And many countries have demonstrated the flexibility to intercept their lethal warheads on the sting of area – nicely earlier than they start their apocalyptic plunge in the direction of their targets.
Submarines, nonetheless, are constructed to be quiet and unseen. And Russia has already modified or constructed a number of vessels able to carrying the large weapon President Putin dubbed “Poseidon” when he listed it amongst six new “Tremendous Weapons” in 2019.
As soon as launched, unconfirmed Russian media studies declare its compact nuclear reactor can drive it at 185km/h over a distance of 10,000km at depths of as much as 1000m.
The possibility of detecting, figuring out, monitoring and intercepting such a weapon with present know-how is untested.
“Whereas some studies declare that Russia’s Poseidon might exist solely as a propaganda scheme, consultants typically agree that the system is ‘very actual’ and has obtained vital sources from the Russian armed forces,” Dr Silky Kaur writes for BOAS.
Russian government-run information company TASS claims the primary batch of prototype Poseidon underwater drones was delivered earlier this 12 months.
The primary operational fashions are stated to have a supply date of 2027. TASS says 30 weapons will likely be deployed from 4 specially-equipped submarines.
Nuclear ‘disrupter’
A nuclear-tipped torpedo got here inside moments of being fired in the course of the 1962 Cuban missile disaster.
Whereas the normal-sized torpedo solely carried a comparatively small warhead, its use may have turned the Chilly Warfare scorching.
A Soviet submarine’s commander was satisfied conflict had already begun. So, when he noticed a US goal, he ordered the warhead be made prepared.
“It is just as a result of the submarine’s deputy commander, Vasili Arkhipov, satisfied different high officers that launching the torpedo can be a deadly mistake {that a} potential nuclear disaster was prevented,” writes Dr Kaur.
The Poseidon, nonetheless, is an autonomous drone.
There aren’t any procedural checks and balances. There isn’t any “human within the loop”.
Synthetic intelligence will do what it’s advised to do. Or what it believes it has been advised.
“These types of steerage might result in issues that embody hacking by third events, lack of management due to technical malfunctions, and environmentally-caused accidents which will result in unsuitable signalling and thus inadvertent escalation,” Dr Kaur warns.
It’s only one new unknown created by the frenzy to combine AI into trendy war-fighting programs.
Many surveillance drones are already AI-controlled. And AI performs a big function within the split-second decision-making of many defensive programs.
However giving machine intelligence the ability of life or dying stays controversial.
“It successfully transforms AI into an lively participant throughout occasions of strategic adversity,” warns Dr Kaur.
“This has sparked a heated debate on whether or not these programs ought to be totally automated or not, as automation brings vital dangers of misjudging the intentions of an opponent.”
Doomsday machine
“It’s broadly speculated that the Poseidon might have been developed as a response to advances in US ballistic missile defence capabilities,” says Dr Kaur.
This challenge started with the notorious “Star Wars” challenge initiated by President Ronald Reagan.
The primary profitable shoot-down of an ICBM was in September 1984. Since then, a number of nations – together with China and India – have examined related capabilities.
However an underwater intercontinental weapon may as soon as once more tilt the percentages again in the direction of nuclear first strike weapons.
“Intelligence studies have steered that Poseidon has undergone many trials, evidenced by the truth that some submarines have been modified and a few are being specifically constructed to accommodate the bigger and heavier Poseidon,” says Dr Kaur.
Two of those submarines put to sea final month. And a latest scan of satellite tv for pc imagery reveals new defences have been put in place about their Arctic Circle base.
However not all people is satisfied that Poseidon is a recreation changer.
Russia already has sufficient ICBMs, nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles and cruise missiles to overwhelm the defences of Europe and the US. And China is quickly increasing its personal ICBM drive.
“As a substitute, many see Poseidon primarily as a psychological weapon meant for nuclear signalling slightly than for its precise use,” says Dr Kaur.
“Some even speculate that the Poseidon will stay on the prototype stage and serve primarily political goals, corresponding to renewed talks with the US on ballistic missile defence programs.
“The weapon’s main intent could also be within the uncertainty, hypothesis and concern it may provoke.”
Jamie Seidel is a contract author | @JamieSeidel
