Scramble for hospital beds as COVID cases tipped to peak

Chief public well being officer Professor Nicola Spurrier informed reporters this afternoon that new modelling by the College of Adelaide confirmed day by day COVID circumstances peaking at round 4-5000 by July 12, spurred by the unfold of a brand new Omicron variant, BA.5.

South Australia right now recorded 2270 new circumstances.

“The pandemic has not simply disappeared – it’s nonetheless very lively as a severe an infection in our neighborhood,” Spurrier stated.

“We do imagine that there can be a (new) wave. I don’t suppose it’s going to be any worse than what we now have skilled with BA.1 and BA.2.

“It’s going to place some stress on our hospital system however I don’t suppose it’s going to be catastrophic.”

Spurrier burdened that whereas the modelling was predicting 4-5000 day by day circumstances in mid-July, there was “uncertainty” round these numbers for a spread of causes together with that extra individuals have had COVID and are actually vaccinated.

“What is obvious is that there’s a cheap certainty that we are going to have one other peak within the subsequent month however the precise measurement in that peak, there’s a whole lot of uncertainty round that,” she stated.

Spurrier stated the modelling predicted about 150 individuals can be hospitalised for COVID throughout the peak.

“By way of the circumstances hospitalised, we’ll hopefully have extra oral antivirals so it might or could not get as excessive as this but it surely’s sitting across the 150-mark for ward occupancy for COVID,” she stated.

At the moment, there are 230 individuals with COVID in hospital, however this consists of individuals in hospital for different causes who by the way have COVID.

Spurrier stated she didn’t have a present “like for like” quantity displaying individuals at the moment hospitalised for COVID however Well being Minister Chris Picton promised to get that data and launch it.

Requested in regards to the anticipated severity of BA.5, Spurrier stated “in the intervening time we contemplate it’s in all probability no extra extreme however when the Adelaide College modellers have put our mannequin collectively they’ve estimated barely larger hospitalisation”.

Picton stated the anticipated peak would put additional stress on the hospital system which he described as in “disaster”.

He stated “we now have opened each single hospital mattress we will throughout our well being system” and authorities had been now turning to the personal system to manage.

“The reality is that we merely don’t have extra hospital beds out there to open so we’re having to have a look at each different out there possibility and that features using the personal system and that features using peri-urban hospitals as properly,” he stated.

He stated greater than 100 public sufferers had been at the moment utilizing personal Adelaide hospital beds “due to absolutely the stress that the system is underneath” and this week one other 28 personal beds can be contracted by the Authorities.

It comes as authorities right now launched an “EDs are for Emergencies” marketing campaign to attempt to scale back stress on the system by encouraging individuals to solely go to hospital in an emergency.

The marketing campaign will embody commercials on social media and tv.

Picton stated “each single day we are actually confronted with the scenario the place there are over 100 sufferers who’re ready for a mattress contained in the hospital system which might be caught in emergency departments”.

“That in the end is as a result of we don’t have sufficient capability in these techniques to get individuals by way of the system,” he stated.

“There’s different components such because the variety of NDIS sufferers that we now have within the system, the place we now have as of final rely 118 sufferers who’re in our hospitals who’re ready for NDIS placements locally.

“Which means there’s enormous stress subsequently on the remainder of the well being system. That’s a much bigger variety of sufferers who’re ready for NDIS discharges than the scale of Noarlunga Hospital – to place into context what number of sufferers that’s.

“As a lot as we might all prefer it to be the case, the pandemic shouldn’t be over. We’re nonetheless dealing with an enormous stress not solely on our well being system however on individuals all through the neighborhood contracting COVID each day.”