The keys to the Sydney Swans’ mid-season AFL favouritism

Midway by way of most soccer seasons, the wheat has been sorted from the chaff and contenders distinguished from pretenders.

Not a lot in 2024.

Perched on the mid-season break bye weeks, little appears clear about this 12 months within the AFL.

Above the underside few groups, little seems to separate the center of the ladder.

Eighteen per cent of all video games have completed with a margin lower than a aim — the best proportion since 1950.

Geelong, GWS and Melbourne threatened to edge away from the pack earlier than getting dragged again into the chaos.

In the previous few weeks, one other aspect has staked its declare to frontrunner standing whereas different flag fancies have stumbled.

The Swans have surged forward by two wins and a big chunk of share, proudly owning a 5-0 file in opposition to present top-eight sides.

The Bloods aren’t any strangers to success, having performed in 4 of the final 12 grand finals and infrequently lacking finals.

However few of these sides have sat so nicely positioned at this stage of a season.

That is the blueprint of how the Swans have charged to the highest within the first half of 2024.

Code phrases and the lengthy recreation

In membership backrooms across the league, the main target isn’t so simple as “giving 110 per cent” or “wanting it extra”. Relatively, gameplans and methods are mentioned in obscured phrases that evolve steadily through the years.

Speak about ‘alphas’, ‘roosts’ and ‘getting skinny’ could be heard recurrently in 2024.

Successful on the clearance coalface is out, as a substitute the main target has shifted to post-clearance contested possessions — the arduous ball past the stoppages.

A current pattern at many golf equipment is aiming to be a “front-half staff” — protecting the ball in your half, and producing turnovers and stoppages nearer to your aim.

It is about stopping the transition earlier than it begins and producing repeat inside-50s.

Entrance-half groups look to generate intercepts ahead of centre and convert them to scores. Ahead-half intercepts are probably the most prolific supply of scoring within the trendy recreation, regardless of occurring about half as usually as back-half intercepts.

Soccer is a recreation of possession and place. You possibly can solely rating when you may have the ball close to your objectives, so it is sensible to deal with profitable the ball there and stopping opponents from doing the identical.

The Swans aren’t any slouches from the entrance half, rating second for factors from front-half turnovers, however the actual energy of their recreation has been from scoring from deep.

Particularly, the Swans are the simplest staff at turning back-half intercepts into scores.

Their transition from defence is just not essentially coming from fast play, because the Swans do not play on and kick the ball particularly quickly. Some gamers contemplate and weigh up the choices, particularly deeper in defence, earlier than they attempt to discover targets in harmful or surprising spots.

This pressure between quick and gradual rebounds can tear opposing groups up — making it harder to successfully arrange their very own defensive constructions.

However, there are gamers who seem to have licence to assault full throttle, mainly enigmatic defender Nick Blakey.

In each defensive duty and counter-attack, Blakey is bettering his 2022 grand closing and 2023 All-Australian squad years.

Whereas intercepting much less regularly than final 12 months due to fewer opponent entries, he has been more practical in 2024 in creating scores together with his intercepts.

At this stage he’s probably probably the most locked-in participant to the All-Australian defensive unit.

A stable defender within the air with excessive closing pace, Blakey is mesmerising with ball in hand.

He takes each metre obtainable and has the power to disguise his intent from opponents with opaque physique language, seeming to behave with out premeditation.

“The Lizard” is the centrepiece of a strong rebound defence, alongside Dane Rampe, Ollie Florent, Jake Lloyd, Matt Roberts and Justin McInerney.

Most of their defenders contribute to launching the ball ahead with menace from intercepts, with defensive wings folding again to assist.

Lloyd specifically has a licence to go, together with his ball use second quickest from taking an uncontested mark within the league. That is starkly completely different from years’ previous for the commentary favorite.

Sydney’s intercepting will not be conventionally eye-catching, missing the ample dramatic intercept marks taken by the league’s gun tall defenders. There isn’t any single anchor like Steven Could or Sam Taylor dictating phrases within the air and shaping video games with large marks.

Solely North Melbourne has taken fewer intercept marks than the Swans this 12 months. However once they do win possession by way of mark or free kick, they’re extremely efficient in marching the ball downfield.

As a substitute, the Swans function as a spoil-first collective, content material to kill contests and direct spoils to good areas.

The Swans’ again seven converge and apply stress and successfully sweep the ball away.

Floor stage turnovers are typically much less harmful (by 1 / 4) than marks and free kicks, however about twice as widespread. The excessive quantity means groups that succeed at shifting the ball from profitable reside ball have an enormous edge on the park.

This fashion of floor stage defensive rebound has emerged by way of the final couple of seasons, however key to the plan is the transition scoring doesn’t sacrifice defensive integrity.

The stable base

The Swans haven’t solely excelled at scoring from long-range forays, they’ve additionally shut off the power for opposition sides to attain off their very own defensive rebounds. No staff covers their very own turnovers higher — the Swans are conceding the least factors per turnover conceded.

The protection their protection affords is a brand new spin on John Longmire’s historically defence-first Swans outlook.

Since 2023, Sydney has struggled to maintain its largest major defenders on the park as Paddy McCartin was pressured to retire and Tom McCartin has missed chunks of footy. With few confirmed choices behind them, Sydney has changed their impression by searching as a pack.

Typically, a smaller set of defenders have held down the Sydney fort, their fashion heavy on assist defence and excellent at avoiding 1v1 conditions.

The issue with a extra aggressive transition recreation is that the dangers required to attain makes turnovers inevitable. Too many punished turnovers, and confidence and motion can wane, however Sydney is nicely positioned to mitigate such risks.

A plethora of quick, versatile gamers are able to dash again the second a turnover transition seems to be like coming, with all of Blakey, Rampe, Florent, McInerney, Harry Cunningham and Robbie Fox possessing real leg pace to match most forwards.

They will commerce roles, shut distance rapidly, stop 1v1 marking contests and look to spoil the ball to benefit, setting issues up anew.

Sydney in assault can due to this fact play the angles and check out loads of dangerous ahead performs, swinging the ball laterally, biting off tough kicks, working by way of tacklers.

Playmakers like Blakey and the midfield trio of Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden are enabled to take the sport on.

This group is assured the identical interceptors and rebounders who assist launch issues can nonetheless cowl counter-transition when it does not fairly work out.

Downside fixing

Sydney’s defenders could be individually remoted and came upon for dimension, particularly when Tom McCartin is not there.

Ahead traces equivalent to Carlton’s have lately appeared more likely to exploit this early in video games, however the Swans have proven a capability to make adjustments on the fly.

Sydney has been significantly dominant within the second half. In video games in opposition to Essendon, GWS, Carlton and the Bulldogs, they both went down early or had been proper in a detailed dogfight within the first half earlier than asserting themselves.

Whether or not it’s changes in opposition to tall forwards, discovering methods to navigate these front-half high-press defences or simply coming to grips with clearance points, the Swans have to date found out what opposition groups have thrown at them.

The worth of being favourites in Could

Nonetheless, premierships aren’t gained in April and Could.

When requested concerning the worth of being early-season favourites final month after their win over Brisbane, GWS coach Adam Kingsley instructed ABC Sport there was none.

Coaches across the league have repeatedly outlined simply how shut this season is shaping up. The Swans’ edge now could dissipate because the months develop colder and the times get shorter, however their success to date has a whiff of sustainability.

Groups will maintain working to cease them and the Swans might want to maintain problem-solving in the event that they’re to maintain profitable, with the eyes of the league mounted on their each transfer.