Portugal and France confirmed their locations within the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, however each the pre-tournament favourites had been removed from convincing in doing so.
Roberto Martinez had Diogo Costa to thank for his penalty heroics towards Slovenia because the Porto goalkeeper spared Cristiano Ronaldo’s blushes in Frankfurt.
Ronaldo noticed his spot-kick saved by Jan Oblak in additional time, lowering the five-time Ballon d’Or winner to tears on the interval earlier than stepping as much as rating within the shootout.
Earlier that day, France had been aided by the knee of Jan Vertonghen as they squeezed previous Belgium in Dusseldorf, with their struggles in entrance of objective persevering with.
This would be the first assembly between the 2 sides since Euro 2020, through which three of the 4 targets had been scored from the penalty spot in a 2-2 draw on the Puskas Area. It’s also, in fact, a repeat of the Euro 2016 remaining, which Portugal received 1-0 in Paris.
Many predict one other enthralling encounter towards two European powerhouses, however primarily based on present kind, we is likely to be higher not anticipating a traditional.
Right here, we use Opta knowledge to preview Friday’s conflict.
What’s anticipated?
France are predicted to emerge victorious in Hamburg, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 40.1% probability of profitable on the Volksparkstadion.
Portugal triumphed in 30.2% of the data-led simulations, with a draw forecast at 29.8%, that means additional time and penalties are an actual chance.
This would be the fifth assembly between Portugal and France on the European Championships, with the Selecao unbeaten within the final two.
France received the primary two conferences, occurring to carry the trophy each occasions (3-2 in 1984, 2-1 in 2000), and Les Bleus know a win might ship them on their approach to silverware as soon as once more.
However whereas either side boast an array of attacking expertise, they’ve misfired in Germany, and each little benefit will probably be essential in a good contest.
Portugal have now failed to attain of their final two matches. They’ve by no means failed to attain in three consecutive video games at a single main match earlier than.
Les Bleus have had an analogous drawback. Their three targets at Euro 2024 to date have come from two personal targets and a penalty from Kylian Mbappe.
Not since a run of 5 internationals between March and September 2013 have France seen their gamers fail to attain from open play in as many matches.
Nevertheless, their defence remained resolute of their time of want. France have an anticipated targets towards (xGA) tally of simply 2.63 at Euro 2024 – the bottom of any aspect within the quarter-final, and second lowest on the match general after already-eliminated Serbia (2.57).
Didier Deschamps’ crew have a powerful file over Friday’s opponents, having misplaced solely certainly one of their final 14 video games towards Portugal (W11 D2), though that lone defeat got here within the remaining of Euro 2016.
However Martinez’s aspect will fancy their probabilities of claiming a second European Championship crown ought to they triumph right here.
The earlier 4 groups to eradicate Les Bleus on the quarter-final stage of a significant match have gone on to win the trophy (Italy within the 1938 World Cup, Greece at Euro 2004, Spain at Euro 2012 and Germany on the 2014 World Cup).
Stick or twist with Ronaldo?
It’s a query that has emerged not for the primary time at Euro 2024, however Martinez will face his hardest resolution but on Portugal’s talisman forward of the fixture towards France.
Ronaldo endured a night to neglect towards Slovenia, however assumed duty for the Selecao’s first spot-kick within the penalty shootout, and was certain to not make the identical mistake twice.
Throughout that recreation in Frankfurt, Ronaldo had probably the most photographs (eight), photographs on track (4), and touches within the opposition field (seven), of any participant. A scientific edge is missing.
Certainly, Portugal’s captain has mustered 20 photographs at Euro 2024, probably the most of any participant, however is but to search out the again of the online.
Ronaldo has additionally tried 34 direct free-kick photographs for Portugal on the Euros, over twice as many as another participant on file (since 1980 – Zinedine Zidane 15), but he’s nonetheless to attain one.
Whereas it could be tough to drop a participant who’s the all-time main goalscorer in worldwide soccer, Martinez might see this as a possibility to clean up his ahead line.
Having recorded an xG complete of 1.97 towards Slovenia, failing to take these alternatives towards a superior opposition will certainly have devastating penalties.
Ronaldo nonetheless can’t rating.
Jan Oblak saves the Portugal penalty to depart Ronaldo in tears. pic.twitter.com/h2MJkHhFxK
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 1, 2024
Slim pickings for Deschamps
Deschamps tried to reignite Les Bleus’ attacking spark with a three-man strike pressure towards Belgium, however the pickings had been slim.
A trio of Mbappe, Marcus Thuram and Antoine Griezmann had been most popular, with Randal Kolo Muani launched late on, but it surely proved to be one other blunt show.
France had 19 photographs towards the Belgians, however simply two had been on track, and in the end it was a contact of fortune that noticed them via.
Between Mbappe (5), Thuram (4) and Griezmann (two), they managed only one shot on track, regardless of having 18 touches between them in Belgium’s field.
Defence, satirically, given the attacking expertise at their disposal, has been France’s robust level. Nevertheless, their array of attacking choices must step up sooner moderately than later.
France have stored a clear sheet in three of their 4 video games, probably the most of any aspect on the match, but they aren’t being helped by the gamers in entrance of them.
Deschamps, nevertheless, has the chance to clean up his ahead line. The France coach faces a call much like Martinez, as to which of his gamers he can belief on the most important of phases.
5 – Groups which have benefited from extra personal targets from their opponents on the European Championship:
5 – FRANCE
4 – Spain
3 – Netherlands
