Eighteen AFL groups turned eight simply three weeks in the past. Since then these eight have been whittled right down to the ultimate 4 contenders for the 2024 premiership.
Every of the 4 groups have — at one stage or one other — held favouritism for the flag. With simply two weeks of footy left within the season it’s really anybody’s competitors. Every of the groups are typically strong throughout the board — as excellent soccer groups are typically.
Every of those 4 contenders — Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane — have explicit elements of their recreation that have to go proper to elevate the flag.
These are parts that every staff must get proper this week as a way to make the grand remaining subsequent week.
Sydney’s shot era energy
Because the minor premier the Swans arguably have extra clear strengths than anybody left.
Regardless of a late season wobble, the Swans entered finals with the primary rating subsequent to their identify. They had been within the prime three in scoring from each the entrance half and again half. Their defence wasn’t that dangerous both.
In anybody’s phrases they had been a strong soccer staff throughout the 12 months, worthy of the title of minor premier.
However let’s give attention to one thing that is not historically related to the Swans in recent times: their assault.
The Swans completed the 12 months with essentially the most complete factors of any aspect. They had been additionally essentially the most environment friendly at turning inside 50s into factors. Sydney swooped within the targets regardless of the way you break it down.
However how the Swans went about it was slightly extra uncommon. Whereas the Swans run three tall forwards at most occasions, they’ve languished close to the underside at taking marks inside 50.
As an alternative, it is the potent small forwards and midfielders pushing ahead that do loads of the harm. The Swans use smaller choices like Heeney, Hayward, Papley and Warner to hit the scoreboard on the run.
The Swans additionally aren’t afraid to bomb away from deep. Solely six groups rating greater than a purpose a recreation from greater than 40 metres out on the run. Sydney is the one aspect going at two targets a recreation from such a distance.
As an alternative of performing as common focal factors for his or her assault, the talls act as foils and spacing choices for his or her smalls. But when an excessive amount of consideration is diverted, occasions equivalent to Joel Amartey kicking 9 targets in a recreation can happen.
Briefly, if the Swans can get their ahead line going — in contrast to of their spherical 20 recreation in opposition to the Energy — they’re going to stand an excellent likelihood at staying alive for yet one more week.
Port Adelaide’s ball-winning prowess
Two weeks in the past Port was humbled in quite a lot of methods by Geelong. Most putting was how the sport performed out by way of the contests proper throughout the bottom.
Not solely did Geelong collect extra ball from contests at floor stage, however additionally they used it extra successfully. Geelong’s win was complete, however their 91-77 victory in profitable disputed ball at floor stage greater than helped them on their means.
There is part of this that’s no shock. Port was one of many strongest groups at profitable the ball at clearances, however the weakest at profitable the ball post-clearance. When Port flies in defence they like to mark and never spoil. They’re additionally not essentially the most aggressive aspect at leaping handball lanes.
Final week — on paper — offered Port with their kryptonite. Hawthorn got here into their semifinal because the strongest floor ball staff within the competitors and had been metaphorically flying. Greatest in opposition to worst often is not robust to foretell.
Nonetheless, Port defied expectations. The Energy greater than did the job in opposition to the Hawks at floor stage. The 104 to 94 victory by the Energy was considered one of their strongest floor ball wins of the 12 months.
Port’s gamers labored arduous on their contest positioning — spacing across the ball extra successfully and dealing at hitting the drop of the ball at velocity. It was clear that Ken Hinkley and his staff centered arduous on this explicit a part of their recreation. Hawthorn performed Port extra conventionally than Geelong did at contests, which suited the Energy completely.
Port Adelaide’s strongest win of the 12 months got here in opposition to Sydney — the aspect they face to make the ultimate week of the season. That 112-point win was powered by an enormous 86 to 62 floor ball benefit. On paper Port match up with Sydney effectively on this space of the bottom given how each side wish to strategy contests.
If Port are to make a 3rd AFL grand remaining, it’s going to probably be powered by their potential to dominate the bottom ball recreation.
Geelong’s rock strong defence
Most followers had been in awe on the 138 factors that the Cats piled up when beating the Energy on their house deck in week one of many finals. That is sensible — targets are thrilling, and intercept marks aren’t.
However over the closing stretches of the season it was the opposite finish of the bottom that powered the Cats in the direction of this vaulted place. Geelong’s defence has lengthy been a energy for Chris Scott. However with shifting elements within the ahead half of the bottom, this energy has change into a reliance.
Led by Zach Gutrhrie, Mark Blicavs, Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij, the Cats have successfully shut down their defensive 50. The defence has shifted away from attacking arduous from defence — the Cats sit close to league common at scoring from intercepts over the previous 5 video games.
The Cats generally transfer a spare participant again from stoppages after the competition breaks free — typically former All-Australian defender Tom Stewart. This creates an additional defensive quantity to stop sides from scoring in transition. In addition they do not overcommit on the counter assault and talk successfully. They get a lot of the fundamentals proper in defence — key for a aspect who’s primed to achieve September.
That defensive potential has saved them in video games the place they do not win territory. In the event that they do handle to win the sector place and possession battle it could actually blow groups out of the water.
Brisbane’s entrance half recreation
In the event you hearken to sufficient coaches speak, the phrases “we wish to be a entrance half staff” will probably come out in the end. There is a good purpose for that — territory typically dictates the trail of play in soccer.
Not solely is Brisbane a entrance half staff, they’re among the finest entrance half groups within the competitors. At their finest, the Lions have no weak hyperlinks ahead of centre, and might assault targets by way of their opponents’ weaknesses.
That potential to create repeat possibilities at purpose — both by way of stoppage or turnover — is essential for the Lions to succeed. The Lions have handled plenty of distinguished accidents to their defensive shares by way of the 12 months. An efficient staff defence greater up the bottom has helped Chris Fagan cope with these points, as has an elevated focus round stoppage.
Brisbane’s purpose kicking woes have been effectively documented over the 12 months. They’ve additionally been on full show of their two finals. It is not simply that they kick loads of behinds, however extra that their let-downs have come from comparatively easy positions.
The Lions sit at about league common in changing harder pictures — set pictures exterior 40, from the pockets, and pictures from basic play. However they have been simply the worst set shot staff within the league at kicking at purpose from straight in entrance of targets inside 40 metres — the gimmes. Brisbane has been a full 0.55 factors worse per shot than the “anticipated rating” on this location.
Their Spherical 6 loss to Geelong noticed the confluence of those two issues. Their entrance half lure largely broke down, with the Cats in a position to rating 38 factors from their again half. That is yet one more level than the Lions kicked in complete for the sport from wherever.
That is partly as a result of the Lions firmly did not have their kicking boots on.
Brisbane kicked 4 targets 13 behinds within the recreation, lacking pictures simple and arduous alike.
If they’ll defend the bottom extra successfully and kick the ball like a traditional staff from straight in entrance they stand an opportunity of righting that consequence.
