Vision Pro report paints the picture of a niche product with surprising set-up hurdles

Market and provide chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has an extended historical past of reporting on Apple provide chain particulars, has a brand new report on Medium about Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional. There are quite a few particulars of doubtful windfall, however all of them paint the image of a really low-volume product that gained’t transition to a preferred, millions-of-sales-per-year product line for fairly a very long time.

In accordance with Kuo, preliminary demand was greater than anticipated however has slowed down loads. The headset, which is at present solely obtainable within the U.S., is anticipated to promote solely 200,000-250,000 items this 12 months. That’s a rise of about 50,000 over Apple’s prior inner estimates, in response to Kuo, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a very area of interest product for Apple, which sells greater than 200 million iPhones a 12 months.

Kuo notes that a few of the small-capacity suppliers for Imaginative and prescient Professional components have elevated their capability from 500,000–600,000 items to 700,000–800,000 items per 12 months. Capability doesn’t equal the precise variety of components that will probably be ordered by Apple or produced, nevertheless it factors to Apple’s means to make extra Imaginative and prescient Professional headsets than will probably be required for the U.S. market alone. Kuo believes that Apple will begin to promote the headset in different markets starting earlier than WWDC in June.

The return fee, in response to Kuo, is lower than 1 p.c, which appears fairly good for such a fledgling product with restricted use. In accordance with his survey of the restore/refurbishment manufacturing line, about 20-30 p.c of these returns are as a consequence of prospects not understanding find out how to arrange Imaginative and prescient Professional, which is definitely a quantity Apple wish to scale back. Ease of use and out-of-the-box setup is certainly one of Apple’s trademark options so its shocking to see so many individuals have bother, even when it does nonetheless characterize a really small variety of customers.

Kuo claims that Apple has not but begun work on the successor to the Imaginative and prescient Professional (broadly anticipated to be two items: a less complicated cost-reduced mannequin and one other excessive finish “Professional” mannequin). A brand new mannequin is anticipated to enter manufacturing on the finish of 2025 or early 2026, however that mannequin is anticipated to have very comparable specs to the present model. It’s as an alternative targeted on bettering manufacturing effectivity and price, not altering the consumer expertise.

Apple is gathering suggestions from customers and builders to tell the long run Imaginative and prescient product roadmap, however Kuo says {that a} new product with a considerably modified consumer expertise in all probability gained’t enter mass manufacturing till 2027. As for the present mannequin, the worldwide cargo forecast has risen from about half one million items to 650-700,000 items, however that’s nonetheless a really area of interest product for Apple and a fraction of the quantity competitor Meta sells with its Quest headsets (estimated to be within the 5-10 million per 12 months vary).

So in case you’re hoping to select up an “Apple Imaginative and prescient Air” for a worth nearer to $1,499 you’re going to be ready some time, at the least in response to Kuo.