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What interest rate cut may mean for house prices

May 20, 2025
in Australia
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Whereas owners are respiration a sigh of reduction following the 12 months’s second rate of interest minimize, there are some considerations concerning the potential to drive up already excessive dwelling costs.
The central financial institution yesterday minimize rates of interest by 25 foundation factors to three.85 per cent, the bottom stage since Could 2023, saving the typical mortgage holder greater than $2500 a 12 months.
Whereas owners are respiration a sigh of reduction following the 12 months’s second rate of interest minimize, there are some considerations concerning the potential to drive up already excessive dwelling costs. (Area)

Area chief of analysis and economics Dr Nicola Powell stated the minimize was “optimistic” for each consumers and owners however issued a caveat.

“With these cuts and borrowing energy bettering, we’re more likely to see home costs begin to rise, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne,” she stated.

“For first dwelling consumers, this might be a double-edged sword – whereas the speed minimize helps with affordability, it might additionally gasoline extra competitors in what’s already a really powerful market.”

The RBA yesterday stated the February money charge discount was but to have a “noticeable influence” on costs, which had been rising at an annualised charge of simply 1 per cent since October.

“Whereas housing costs sometimes reply comparatively rapidly to rate of interest modifications, the velocity and measurement of the response will depend on the anticipated path of future rates of interest and different macroeconomic variables,” the financial institution’s assertion on financial coverage famous.

However even earlier than yesterday’s charge cuts, some economists had been predicting a rise in that progress.

Michele Bullock during a hearing with the Standing Committee on Economics at Parliament House in Canberra on Friday 21 February 2025.
In its financial coverage assertion, the RBA board stated financial situations had been proper to cut back the money charge in the present day, however the outlook forward was nonetheless unsure. (Alex Ellinghausen)

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina final week predicted home costs would enhance about 3 per cent this 12 months.

“Australian dwelling costs have probably began an upswing on the again of decrease rates of interest,” she stated. 

“Nevertheless it’s more likely to be modest with US tariff worries constraining consumers and posing a close to time period menace of a reversal in costs and affordability remaining poor.”

Questioned yesterday concerning the potential to driving up housing prices, RBA governor Michele Bullock stated the financial institution’s focus needed to be on inflation. 

“If the best factor to do when it comes to employment and inflation is to decrease rates of interest, I believe we have now to simply accept what which may suggest for housing costs as a result of, as I stated earlier, the problem for housing is provide and demand,” she stated.

“And if we begin occupied with, ‘Nicely, can we decrease rates of interest due to housing costs?’ we’ll take our eye off the ball, which is inflation, unemployment. And I do not suppose that will be the best factor to do.

“So I acknowledge that some individuals are fearful that as rates of interest come down, housing costs will rise.

“However different insurance policies are actually going to must step up right here and tackle what’s a housing scarcity.”

Her “private reflection” was that there was nothing the financial institution might do about housing affordability, placing the onus on state and federal governments to behave.

“Hold inflation low and ensure they’ve jobs. That is actually essential. That is what we are able to do,” she stated.

“What governments can do is have a look at the supply-demand imbalance in housing, and I am assured now that no less than there may be some focus in that path.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday described the speed minimize as “welcome reduction”.

“We’re actually happy to see extra assistance is on the way in which for working households with a mortgage, and that is what this determination in the present day is all about,” he stated.

“It does replicate the very substantial and sustained progress that we have made collectively on inflation in our financial system, and it additionally recognises the unsure international setting as properly on the subject of inflation.”

Graham Cooke, head of client analysis at Finder, stated there was nonetheless a risk that 2025 held two additional charge cuts for households sweating on cost reduction.

“Frankly, two cuts may not be sufficient to ease the spike in mortgage stress we have seen because the money charge began rising once more in Could 2022,” he stated.



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