Why Democrats Won in Kentucky but Came up Short in Mississippi

• Final week, Democrats loved a wave of success in many of the prime electoral contests.
• Gov. Andy Beshear gained reelection, however Brandon Presley misplaced the Mississippi governor’s race.
• It is a story of two states: each are conservative, however one had a stronger Republican tilt.

Democrats final week have been victorious in high-stakes elections throughout the USA, successful the Kentucky gubernatorial election, flipping the Virginia Home of Delegates and assuming full management of that state’s legislature, and successful a key referendum in Ohio that can now enshrine abortion entry into its structure.

However in Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves was reelected to a second time period over Democratic nominee Brandon Presley by roughly 4.4 factors, a margin that was comparatively shut for the conservative state. Presley clearly made some headway, even when it wasn’t sufficient to hold the day.

Kentucky can also be a conservative Southern state the place voters typically again Republicans in most statewide races, but Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected to a second time period over GOP state Lawyer Common Daniel Cameron by 5 factors.

So why did the 2 states diverge of their respective gubernatorial contests? A number of essential variations moved the needle extra closely for Beshear than Presley.

An abortion breakthrough

After the Supreme Court docket overturned Roe v. Wade final 12 months, abortion rights have develop into a potent political subject for Democrats, whereas GOP lawmakers have struggled to counter their overwhelming opposition to abortion with a place that is palatable to a broad section of voters.

In Kentucky, Beshear ran an advert that includes Hadley Duvall, a younger lady who had been raped by her stepfather at age 12. Through the marketing campaign, Duvall referred to as out Cameron for his assist of a extremely restrictive abortion ban that didn’t embrace exceptions for rape or incest. The legal professional common later indicated that he’d again exceptions “if the courts made us change that regulation,” however many citizens have been miffed by mainstream GOP messaging on a problem that may be extremely nuanced, even amongst some Republican voters.

Beshear successfully painted the state’s near-total abortion ban as “excessive” within the eyes of many citizens.

However in Mississippi, the abortion debate was basically neutralized, as each Reeves and Presley are anti-abortion. Whereas Democratic enthusiasm for Beshear could have been amplified over his assist for exceptions to the Kentucky regulation, the alternative was true of Presley’s candidacy, as Mississippi Democrats have been more likely to cite Medicaid growth and elevated training funding as core points.

Operating up the margins

Beshear made vital inroads in rural and suburban communities throughout Kentucky, nevertheless it was the state’s inhabitants facilities that powered his victory over Cameron.

In Louisville, which is consolidated with Jefferson County, Beshear gained 70% of the vote. Beshear secured an almost 103,000-vote margin in Jefferson County alone.

Lexington, the state’s second-most populous metropolis, is consolidated with Fayette County and lately has additionally produced sizable margins for Democratic candidates. Beshear gained Fayette County 72% to twenty-eight%, an enormous 44-point edge that netted him roughly 45,000 extra votes than Cameron.

Banking these kinds of numbers was useful for Beshear, as he ran competitively throughout the state, even successful a number of counties that former President Donald Trump carried by giant margins in 2020.

In Mississippi, Presley relied extra on an urban-rural coalition. He campaigned in suburban areas as properly, however the state’s suburban voters are usually extra conservative than these in different elements of the nation, particularly in northern Mississippi and close to the Gulf Coast.

Whereas Presley carried out strongly in cities like Jackson and lots of the rural counties within the Delta, the margins weren’t as large as these in city Kentucky as a result of smaller inhabitants sizes.

In Hinds County, residence of the state capital of Jackson, Presley beat Reeves 79% to twenty%. However Presley’s 59-point benefit in Hinds County solely netted him about 38,000 votes, which wasn’t almost sufficient to beat Reeves’ margins in rural and suburban counties throughout a lot of the state.

A story of two names

Beshear is from a storied Democratic household in Kentucky politics. His father is former Gov. Steve Beshear, who led the state from 2007 to 2015. Much like the youthful Beshear, the elder Beshear additionally served as a Kentucky legal professional common.

Each father and son have carved out a fame as political moderates in a state that has not been receptive to the nationwide Democratic model because the Nineteen Nineties.

So voters in Kentucky are well-accustomed to the Beshear identify, and the elder Beshear usually loved excessive marks from voters, whilst he neared the tip of his second and closing gubernatorial time period.

Presley’s candidacy instantly turned heads, as he’s a second cousin of the late singer Elvis Presley, however he by no means centered on his surname to garner votes.

The Presley identify is golden in music, however the household is not identified for its ventures into elected politics. In the meantime, Beshear is more likely to have benefited from his surname amongst some voters given his household’s historical past in Kentucky.

And now he’ll have 4 extra years within the Governor’s Mansion.