- Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive towards the Syrian authorities.
- Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years.
- Here is why Syria is so vital for each Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has been finishing up airstrikes on Syrian insurgent fighters who’re advancing by means of the nation as a part of an offensive that has seen them seize management of Aleppo, certainly one of Syria’s largest cities.
The shock offensive, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, marks probably the most important escalation within the Syrian civil battle in years — and the end result has severe implications for each Russia and Iran.
Russia’s gateway to the Mediterranean
Syria holds strategic significance for Moscow and Tehran, which have each supported Syrian President Bashar Assad’s embattled regime.
For Russia, which operates two main navy bases within the nation — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — Syria affords a key foothold within the area, giving its forces essential entry to the Mediterranean Sea and a launching pad for operations in Africa.
Russia has sought to increase its affect throughout the Center East and Africa lately as a counterweight to the US, forging nearer ties with key Center Jap gamers like Iran and Saudi Arabia and reportedly offering African governments with safety help by means of the Wagner mercenary group.
Natasha Corridor, a senior fellow with the Center East Program on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research, informed Enterprise Insider that Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t afford to lose a Russia-friendly authorities in Syria for concern of shedding the airbase and heat water port essential to sustaining its affect within the area.
“It is used that port and the bottom as a launching pad to maneuver into Africa,” Corridor mentioned. “At one level, there have been not less than 30 Russian warships within the Mediterranean, whereas only a few years prior, there have been none.”
Zineb Riboua, a analysis fellow and program supervisor on the Hudson Institute’s Middle for Peace and Safety within the Center East, mentioned shedding Syria could be “an enormous deal for Russia.”
“Most of its plans within the Sahel and Libya revolve round supporting Russia’s entry to the Mediterranean, with no robust Russian navy base in Syria, all of Putin’s plans collapse,” Riboua wrote on X.
Putin’s help for Assad helped enhance his reputation in Africa, Riboua continued, including that shedding Syria would “make Putin not simply look weak, however look unreliable to many African international locations that rely in the present day on Wagner.”
Iran’s community of proxies
Syria additionally gives Iran with entry to the Mediterranean by way of a land hall that extends from Tehran by means of to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, connecting its proxies within the area.
“For Iran, Syria is completely important as a way to preserve its proxy community,” Corridor mentioned. “It now has this unimpeded route from Tehran all the way in which to Lebanon.”
Syria is especially vital for Iran’s capability to help the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which for over a yr has been embroiled in battle with Israel. Israel has not too long ago thrown this prime Iranian ally into disarray, killing its longtime chief and wounding hundreds of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. A cease-fire settlement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah final week.
“Iran is deeply invested in Syria with dozens of navy bases and different services as a result of the nation is essential to Tehran’s help for Hezbollah,” wrote Steven Cook dinner, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Center East and Africa Research on the Council on Overseas Relations suppose tank.
Syria gives Tehran with a spot to fabricate weapons and a route to move them, in addition to a command put up for Iranian commanders who work with Hezbollah, Cook dinner mentioned.
However Israeli strikes on the militant group have impacted Iran’s hall and put its place within the area beneath strain.
Tehran might, due to this fact, see the Syrian battle as a method to reimpose itself within the area, Riboua mentioned in one other put up on X.
“Weakened in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran now views the battle in Syria as a chance to reassert its affect by becoming a member of the Assad regime towards its opposition,” Riboua mentioned. “Tehran doubtless sees this renewed involvement as an opportunity to revive its legitimacy and strengthen its management over its proxies.”
Newest battle is ‘no shock’
Russian ties with Syria hint again to the Chilly Warfare-era when Moscow provided arms to the nation.
The 2 international locations grew nearer beneath the management of Putin and Assad, as the previous sought to develop and defend Russian pursuits within the Center East.
In 2015, this resulted in Russia immediately intervening within the nation’s civil battle, which started in 2011, to prop up Assad.
Over the next years, Moscow steadily constructed up its navy presence in Syria, and by 2018, the Russian Ministry of Protection mentioned that greater than 63,000 Russian troops had “obtained fight expertise” within the nation.
However following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s Syrian operations had been placed on the again burner, and it reportedly redeployed some troops, mercenaries, and navy gear from Syria to Ukraine.
Iran and Syria, in the meantime, have had robust relations for the reason that 1979 Iranian revolution.
Iranian troops are additionally reported to have fought alongside Syrian authorities forces in 2015.
However like Russia, Iran’s priorities have shifted in current months, with Tehran locked with Israel in a collection of escalating long-range strikes.
For the US, that meant the newest offensive seemingly got here as no nice shock.
Talking to NBC Information, nationwide safety advisor Jake Sullivan mentioned that Assad’s three key backers, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, had all “been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere.”
“So it is no shock that you simply see actors in Syria, together with the rebels, attempt to reap the benefits of that,” he added.
For Russia and Iran, the autumn of Aleppo will nonetheless come as a humiliating blow, Corridor mentioned.
It reveals “how weak their ally is, even after 13 years of battle,” she added.
