Democracies are, by nature, techniques of stability and alter.
However, north of the Tweed River, Queensland politics may be very a lot about stability, and solely somewhat about change. The place, for instance, New South Wales has seen 9 premiers over the previous 20 years, Queensland has seen simply 4.
But a altering of the guard is now occurring after Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk — the daughter of a Labor cupboard minister and the final of the “COVID-19 period” premiers — tearfully introduced her resignation because the state’s thirty ninth (and second girl) premier. With the approaching of the “foolish season”, that is the proper time for management transition: Labor can start 2024 with a clear web page.
When Palaszczuk departs on Friday, she could have served eight years and 305 days, changing into Queensland’s fifth-longest — and Labor’s third-longest — serving premier. She has represented the very secure Labor seat of Inala in Brisbane’s southwest since 2006.
Palaszczuk was elected Labor chief in 2012 to move a Labor rump of simply seven MPs after Campbell Newman’s Liberal Nationwide Get together routed the Bligh Labor authorities. With the help of a commerce union marketing campaign towards an LNP plan to privatise state belongings, Labor fell into minority authorities simply three years later. It was essentially the most outstanding turnaround in political fortunes in fashionable Australian historical past.
However Palaszczuk — who turned the primary girl to guide an opposition into authorities in an Australian federal or state (however not territory) election, the primary girl to realize three successive election victories, and the primary to guide a majority-female cupboard in Australia — was no “unintended premier”; she was a preferred chief in her personal proper.
In carving out a brand new type of management — positioned someplace between the amiable Peter Beattie and the executive Anna Bligh — Palaszczuk blended a “subsequent door neighbour” folksiness with a Queensland-first populism to forge a brand new sort of “sturdy” but accessible chief. That mannequin of management was writ giant by way of onerous border closures through the early days of COVID-19, which noticed Palaszczuk rewarded on the 2020 election with an elevated parliamentary majority.
Greater than a yr after that victory, Labor — in keeping with a February YouGov survey — was nonetheless polling 39% of the first vote (in comparison with 38% for the LNP), main the LNP after preferences by 52% to 48%.
Furthermore, Palaszczuk nonetheless loved a internet satisfaction score of plus-14 factors.
Quick ahead to late 2023, a Resolve-Strategic Ballot pegged Labor’s major vote at a mere 33% (in comparison with 37% for the LNP).
With an October YouGov ballot beforehand discovering Labor trailing the LNP after preferences, 48% to 52% — a swing of 5 factors from 2020 — Labor was set to lose 10 seats to the LNP (largely within the areas) and a minimum of two seats in Brisbane to the Greens.
Resolve-Strategic additionally discovered 39% preferring LNP chief David Crisafulli as premier, in comparison with 34% for Palaszczuk. Crisafulli additionally loved a internet approval score of plus-nine factors, whereas Palaszczuk had a internet approval of minus-17. Hardly ever have we seen a once-widely admired chief grow to be so extensively disparaged.
So what went fallacious for Palaszczuk?
Palaszczuk’s most critical problem emerged in early 2022, when questions of integrity had been raised, together with allegations of a partisan Crime and Corruption Fee, of ministerial employees bullying public servants, of too-cosy relationships with lobbyists, and alleged interference within the work of the integrity commissioner.
The ordering of three inquiries stabilised Labor’s shares. However, by late 2022, intelligent assaults by the LNP opposition (led by a reasonable Crisafulli, who was by then constructing a excessive media profile) on Palaszczuk as a “part-time”, “checked-out” and “crimson carpet” premier proved stunningly profitable. Coupled with crises in the price of residing, youth crime, housing and hospital ramping, Palaszczuk and Labor appeared directionless by 2023.
In August 2023, whereas the premier loved an abroad vacation, hypothesis mounted that her decline within the polls meant a departure was imminent. However, on her return, Palaszczuk stood within the Parliament, dug in her heels and reminded Queenslanders she was the boss. The very fact Palaszczuk has solely now succumbed to stress suggests Labor’s inside energy dynamics have modified through the previous three months.
Palaszczuk insists her poor approval scores don’t have anything to do with the timing of her departure. As an alternative, she says, she determined to make means for change after seeing “new faces” ultimately week’s nationwide cupboard assembly. Nevertheless it’s extra doubtless social gathering chieftains, particularly these main commerce unions affiliated with the now-dominant Left faction, final week gave the premier a mild “shoulder faucet” and urged her management was not tenable.
Palaszczuk has already endorsed her deputy (and Left faction chief) Steven Miles as the following premier, regardless of her factional colleague and treasurer, Cameron Dick, typically being touted for succession. Given the Left has managed the Labor parliamentary social gathering since 2015, Miles will inevitably grow to be premier, though there may be rising caucus assist for one more Left star, Well being Minister Shannon Fentiman.
There’ll, nevertheless, be no poll. Given Queensland Labor rule modifications in 2015 — the place ballots for management contests are shared equally amongst caucus, rank and file members and commerce union representatives — a drawn-out public brawl with a Labor Get together in limbo will likely be averted in any respect prices.
If victorious, the extra softly-spoken Miles will carry a change of tempo to a Queensland premiership the place loud voices are the norm. Miles, 46, is a former small businessman who holds a doctorate in political science. The married father of three, who labored for the general public sector Collectively Union, received the leafy Brisbane seat of Mt Coot-tha in 2015, then switched to the outer-Brisbane seat of Murrumba in 2017. He has beforehand served as minister for the setting and minister for well being.
That Miles is poised to take the premiership at this time is arguably an accident of historical past. First, it’s uncommon for Queensland Labor to be dominated by the Left. Second, Miles was promoted to the deputy place in Might 2020 solely as a result of former deputy premier and Left chief, Jacqui Trad, resigned from cupboard following an investigation by the state’s corruption watchdog. Trad misplaced her seat to the Greens on LNP preferences in 2020.
Miles was not initially well-received as deputy premier, with voters anecdotally disliking him, and particularly his makes an attempt on the “assault canine” function deputies so typically assume.
However, serving as performing premier throughout quite a few Palaszczuk absences, different anecdotal proof suggests Miles has garnered a level of respect.
So we are able to count on a business-as-usual strategy from a Miles cupboard. There will likely be heavy funding in infrastructure, particularly within the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, and within the areas; main strides towards clear vitality (though coal, with current royalty hikes, will nonetheless loom giant); and a deep dedication to social justice, particularly First Nations peoples, within the wake of the Voice to Parliament referendum’s defeat.
The ultimate query, whether or not Miles can flip a sure Labor defeat within the 2024 state election right into a Labor victory, is as but unanswerable. A fourth Labor time period, even when in minority authorities with the Greens, continues to be doable, however removed from possible. The LNP requires a 6.1% after-preference swing to snare the 14 seats it wants for majority authorities.
Till yesterday, Palaszczuk’s more and more unpopular management was the most important obstacle to a Labor victory on October 26, 2024. That hurdle has now been eliminated. If inflation, as anticipated, cools subsequent yr, and if Miles can display some historically “sturdy” management and regulation and order populism — and mitigate hospital ramping and social housing shortages with instant and tangible outcomes — then Labor has an actual likelihood.
Queensland politics simply received attention-grabbing once more.
